219 S Paseo Sarta Unit B · Green Valley, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +10.9/30.0
- 1% rule +8.5/10.0
- Rent growth +3.9/5.0
- Schools +3.9/10.0
- DSCR +3.2/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$97,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Great location with lots of common ground as your backyard. Truly a pleasant view from the kitchen! Plus a feeling of openness - unique to the villas! Front parking with laundry facilities across the street and one of the community pools a short distance away. This villa features newer front door (with large window & built-in blind) & back door and security doors, newer full sized refrigerator & range/oven with overhead fan. Kitchen also features reverse osmosis. The artificial fireplace sure adds a wonderful ambiance to the living area. Great starter home or winter visitor retreat! Move-in ready home just waiting for you!
Key facts
- Great location
- Near pool
- New ceramic tile
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $97k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-512/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (6.4% below list).
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
- Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Green Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 600 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $38k; list at $97k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.35% ✓
- Cap rate
- 5.77%
- Cash-on-cash
- -1.88%
- DSCR
- 0.92
- GRM
- 6.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $130,486
- List price
- $97,000
- Delta
- -25.66%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176 S Paseo Sarta Unit B | 0.06mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 0mo | $124,000 | $211 | 97 |
| 277 S Paseo Pena Unit C | 0.13mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 0mo | $76,000 | $129 | 93 |
| 344 S Paseo Pena Unit B | 0.14mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 1mo | $119,000 | $202 | 92 |
| 263 S Paseo Madera Unit C | 0.25mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 2mo | $97,000 | $165 | 87 |
| 364 S Paseo Lobo Unit C | 0.30mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 0mo | $102,000 | $173 | 86 |
| 291 S Paseo Lobo #C | 0.33mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 2mo | $89,900 | $153 | 83 |
| 346 S Paseo Aguila Unit B | 0.41mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 0mo | $85,000 | $145 | 81 |
| 468 S Paseo Aguila Unit C | 0.47mi | 1/1.0 | 588 (0%) | 1mo | $75,000 | $128 | 77 |
| 436 S Paseo Madera Unit B | 0.31mi | 1/1.0 | 654 (+11%) | 2mo | $109,500 | $167 | 66 |
| 436 S Paseo Cerro Unit B | 0.41mi | 1/1.0 | 648 (+10%) | 1mo | $100,000 | $154 | 63 |
| 291 S La Cañada Dr Unit A | 0.21mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 696 (+18%) | 0mo | $93,000 | $134 | 60 |
| 437 S Paseo Madera Unit A | 0.33mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 696 (+18%) | 0mo | $121,000 | $174 | 54 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -14.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.46×
- Total profit
- $-14,636
- Equity at exit
- $14,463
- IRR
- 0.1%
- Equity multiple
- 1.00×
- Total profit
- $122
- Equity at exit
- $8,387
Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 4 active · 10 under contract
- Median asking
- $142,000 ($204/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 129 d
- This list price
- 25% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85614
- Rents YoY
- 5.6%
- Active inventory
- 600
- Price-to-rent
- 6.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,314 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$509
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$121 /mo · $1,455/yr
- Insurance
- −$40
- HOA
- −$410
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$276
- Net cashflow
- $-43
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $24 | -5% $-9 | +0% $-43 | +5% $-76 | +10% $-110 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-146 | -5% $-95 | +0% $-43 | +5% $9 | +10% $61 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $6 | -0.5pp $-18 | base $-43 | +0.5pp $-68 | +1.0pp $-93 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $24,250
- Closing costs
- $2,910
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 23 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,100 | $1.87 | 57d | 1 | 0.09mi |
| 232 S Paseo Pena Unit C Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,000 | $1.70 | 57d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 132 S Paseo Sarta Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $2,000 | $3.40 | 10d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $2,000 | $3.40 | 57d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,050 | $1.79 | 74d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 329 S Paseo Pena Apt A Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,150 | $1.65 | 10d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 322 S La Canada Dr Unit D Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,200 | $1.72 | 82d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 386 S La Canada Dr Unit C Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 600 | $1,150 | $1.92 | 10d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,025 | $1.47 | 110d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 248 S Paseo Lobo Unit D Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,150 | $1.65 | 10d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,250 | $2.13 | 119d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,100 | $1.58 | 87d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,100 | $1.58 | 112d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 696 | $1,000 | $1.44 | 119d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,200 | $2.04 | 97d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,200 | $2.04 | 119d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 469 S Paseo Lobo Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,200 | $2.04 | 10d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 321 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 596 | $1,000 | $1.68 | 4d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 321 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 596 | $1,000 | $1.68 | 10d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 478 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $1,000 | $1.70 | 63d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $2,000 | $3.40 | 119d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 480 S Paseo Aguila Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $925 | $1.57 | 76d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 480 S Paseo Aguila Unit C Green Valley, AZ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 588 | $950 | $1.62 | 76d | 1 | 0.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Lot maintained by HOA
- HOA & community
- Part of Villas West associationMonthly HOA feeHOA amenities include maintenance, laundry, park, poolHOA pays for air conditioning/heating service, blanket insurance policy, common area maintenance, exterior unit maintenance, pest control, roof repair/replacement, sewer, street maintenance, water
Exterior
- Parking
- Designated parking spot in front of unitVisitor parking
- Security
- Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Water provided by local water companySewer connected
- Home design
- CondominiumOne storyFaces west
- Construction
- Slump block constructionBuilt-Up roof
- Exterior features
- Paver patio/porchShrubsEast/West exposurePaved streetSidewalksWalking trailJogging/bike pathParkShuffleboardLighted areasPool (community)
Interior
- Kitchen
- RefrigeratorGas rangeMicrowave
- Flooring
- Ceramic tile
- Bathrooms
- 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heating (natural gas)Central airCeiling fans
- Interior features
- FurnishedExhaust fanSmoke detector(s)Wide hallways
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry available (community amenity)
HOA detail $410/mo · $4,920/yr condo
- Likely covers
- poolsecurity
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $97,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $97,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $97,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $97,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $97,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $97,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $97,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $97,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $97,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $97,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $97,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $97,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $97,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $97,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $97,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $97,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $97,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $97,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $97,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $97,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $97,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $97,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $97,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $97,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $97,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $97,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $97,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $97,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $97,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $97,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $97,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $97,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $97,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $97,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $97,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $97,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $97,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $97,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $97,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $97,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $97,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $97,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $97,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $97,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $97,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $97,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $97,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $97,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $97,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $97,000 Active 75 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,763
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,434
- − Property taxes
- −$1,455
- − Insurance
- −$485
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,261
- − Management
- −$1,261
- − HOA
- −$4,920
- − Depreciation
- −$2,822
- Taxable loss
- −$1,875
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$450
- After-tax cash flow
- $-62/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This property is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers a good location and is move-in ready.
Repairs flagged
- Minor Paint — Some wear on interior walls
- Minor Bathroom fixtures — Some wear
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
- Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Continental Elementary District (4416)
- NCES district ID
- 0402250
- Math proficiency
- 35% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 42% ▬ 0.00%
- Median HH income
- $48,475
- Composite
- 33.08/100
- National rank
- #5565
- State rank
- #72 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Green Valley
- Score
- 61/100
- State rank
- #165
- US rank
- #18276
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Green Valley, AZ
- County
- Pima County · 1,066,056 people
- City population
- 25,381
- Metro
- Tucson, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 25,381
- Household income
- $64,879
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 29% of renters
Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,066,056 people
- By 2030
- 1,086,684 · +1.9%
- By 2040
- 1,117,160 · +4.8%
- By 2050
- 1,149,778 · +7.9%
- By 2075
- 1,271,480 · +19.3%
- By 2100
- 1,321,160 · +23.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (80%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%
Political lean MEDSL · Pima
- 2024 margin
- D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -231.05%
- Current HPI
- 250.5933
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 5.60%
- Metro
- Tucson, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
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Price history
+151.9% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-09 Listed $97,000 MLSSAZ
- 2015-12-18 Sold (MLS) $38,500 MLSSAZ
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…