301 Cedar Ln · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1995 9,583 sqft lot $76/sqft · 60% below area Est $197k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom brick home situated on a spacious corner lot. Conveniently located within minutes of I-55, making commuting a breeze, and just minutes from downtown Ponchatoula’s shopping and restaurants. Recent updates include a new roof and water heater. Features an attached covered carport with additional storage, plus a covered back patio. Home has never flooded, located in a flood zone X.

Key facts

• Water heater
• Spacious corner lot
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• NEW ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• ATTACHED COVERED CARPORT
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.1% in Ponchatoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.09%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,345
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -19.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
470 W Cypress St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,011 (-4%)	4mo	$230,000	$114	65
405 S Eighth St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,974 (-6%)	12mo	$210,000	$106	59
1738 Mill Gardens Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,922 (-9%)	12mo	$250,000	$130	50
206 E Pecan St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,080 (-1%)	12mo	$323,000	$155	45
16146 Derry St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,791 (-15%)	14mo	$245,000	$137	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,308
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $19,514
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
470 S 2nd St Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,400	$0.85	43d	1	1.04mi
332 Silverstone Cir Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	2.0	1785	$1,850	$1.04	43d	1	1.33mi
335 N Baronne St Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1699	$1,450	$0.85	43d	1	1.39mi
18158-0 Logan Ct Ponchatoula, LA	4.0	2.0	2079	$2,000	$0.96	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-01-22
    listed $159,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    3-bedroom brick home situated on a spacious corner lot. Conveniently located within minutes of I-55, making commuting a breeze, and just minutes from downtown Ponchatoula's shopping and restaurants. Recent updates include a new roof and water heater. Features an attached covered carport with additional storage, plus a covered back patio. Home has never flooded, located in a flood zone X.

19. 2026-01-22
    listed $159,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    3-bedroom brick home situated on a spacious corner lot. Conveniently located within minutes of I-55, making commuting a breeze, and just minutes from downtown Ponchatoula's shopping and restaurants. Recent updates include a new roof and water heater. Features an attached covered carport with additional storage, plus a covered back patio. Home has never flooded, located in a flood zone X.

20. 2024-03-05
    historical
21. 2023-12-31
    price $170,000
22. 2023-06-02
    price $180,000
23. 2023-05-09
    listed $210,000 Active
24. 2023-05-09
    listed $170,000
25. 2014-08-29
    listed $115,000
26. 2014-08-29
    listed $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$31/mo · 72.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $4,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ponchatoula, LA
• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+38.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $159,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $159,000 GSREIN
• 2024-03-05 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-12-31 Price Changed $170,000 GBRMLS
• 2023-06-02 Price Changed $180,000 GBRMLS
• 2023-05-09 Listed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-05-09 Listed $210,000 GBRMLS
• 2014-08-29 Listed $115,000 GSREIN
• 2014-08-29 Listed $115,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $508 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.