1613 Arthur Ave · Panama City, FL 32405

$155,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1953 Fair condition 10,220 sqft lot $80/sqft · 44% below area Est $277k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this opportunity to own right in the middle of Panama City, in St Andrews area, and only 13 minutes to the beaches. St. Andrews is vibrant with restaurants, businesses, marina, etc and this home is just as convenient to downtown and all that is offered. There are 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with a 3rd bath that has been gutted and is ready for remodel. The back yard is partially fenced and a great place for enjoying get-togethers, cookouts, ballgames, with the large screened porch across the rear of the home. Cash Offers please. A viewing release must be signed and returned to our office before showing this property.

Key facts

• Large screened porch
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1953

Tags

• CONVENIENT TO DOWNTOWN
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACK YARD
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 442 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $155k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.66%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,461
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -44.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1509 Foster Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,814 (-6%)	8mo	$328,000	$181	66
2606 W 20th St	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,893 (-2%)	10mo	$282,000	$149	65
1522 Fountain Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,855 (-4%)	7mo	$120,000	$65	62
1911 Frankford Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,946 (+1%)	14mo	$265,000	$136	61
2205 W 14th St	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,082 (+8%)	3mo	$340,000	$163	60
1613 Friendship Ave	0.50mi	4/3.0	1,816 (-6%)	11mo	$285,000	$157	57
2510 W 18th St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (+9%)	12mo	$150,000	$71	56
2009 Clay Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-3%)	20mo	$305,000	$163	51
2124 Hentz Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,905 (-1%)	18mo	$295,000	$155	48
1301 Oakland Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,674 (-13%)	9mo	$200,000	$119	43
1411 Chestnut Ave	0.44mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,680 (-13%)	13mo	$372,000	$221	40
1325 Fairland Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,646 (-15%)	8mo	$289,500	$176	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $20,914
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $67,130
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $301,750 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -16.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $955/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $871	-5% $827	+0% $784	+5% $740	+10% $696
Rent	-10% $609	-5% $696	+0% $784	+5% $871	+10% $958
Rate	-1.0pp $862	-0.5pp $823	base $784	+0.5pp $743	+1.0pp $702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	70d	1	0.63mi
1113 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,295	$1.15	70d	1	0.66mi
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	62d	1	1.20mi
1007 W 10th Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	2046	$2,600	$1.27	62d	1	1.41mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$1,630	$1.63	62d	12	1.49mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer available
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approx. 73 x 140Zoned for single-family residentialShort-term rentals allowed in the community

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms (approx. sizes: 9 x 9; 13 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 4 roomsLiving room on the first floor

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $155,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $155,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $155,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    remarks 636-char remark
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    remarks 546-char remark
21. 2026-07-13
    status $165,000 Active 42 DOM
22. 2026-06-02
    status $165,000 Pending 42 DOM
23. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
25. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-04-18
    listed $165,000 Active 526-char remark
27. 1995-03-01
    soldstatus $63,000
28. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$331/yr (+$28/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$955
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $7,287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,749
• After-tax cash flow: $7,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $48,250–$86,850 screening

The home requires moderate renovations, focusing on landscaping, fencing, and exterior painting to improve its curb appeal and overall value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Sparse and overgrown, needs significant improvement.
• Major Fencing — Worn and needs repair or replacement.
• Major Exterior paint — Siding appears weathered and may need repainting.
• Major Landscaping — Sparse and overgrown, needs significant improvement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Exterior painting — Improves the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lucille Moore Elementary School F FL #1,969/2,144 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Jinks Middle School F FL #348/571 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer available
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approx. 73 x 140Zoned for single-family residentialShort-term rentals allowed in the community

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms (approx. sizes: 9 x 9; 13 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 4 roomsLiving room on the first floor

Price history

+270.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 1995-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $955 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.