3354 Medway Ln · Tuckahoe, VA 23139

$195,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1980 5.27 ac lot $79/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AUCTION, AUCTION, AUCTION: By order of the Sellers, this property is being auctioned to the highest bidder. .. That's no typo-You can own this 2 Story Colonial, 4Br, 3.5Bth, 2476±sf, 5.27±acres- ONLINE AUCTION - NAME YOUR PRICE! It SELLS at a high bid of $195,000 * or more: You can own this home for as little as $214,500 ( * incl 10% Buyer Premium). This 2-Story Colonial home is beautifully positioned on 5.27± acres, overlooking a pond & neighboring horse farm, is 10 min from I-288 & Rt. 711. It has 2,476sqft, 4 bedrooms & 3.5 bathrooms. 1st Floor: living room, dining room, family room w/ fireplace, & eat-in-kitchen. 2nd Floor: primary bedroom & en-suite bath, 3 more bedrooms & full hall bath. Basement: bonus room (rec room, guest suite or home office), full bath, utility room & 1-car garage. This 5+ acre property also includes a pole barn and a shed. Update / remodel this property to suit your design & taste. A rare Home Buyer / Investor dream opportunity! Area homes typically sell in the $525K-$675K range. There will be two Open Houses for viewing only: Monday April 27 11am-1pm and Tuesday April 28 11am-1pm. Bidding starts online Tuesday April 28 1:00PM and ends Thursday April 30 1:00PM. This house is a MUST see; don’t miss this chance, ACT NOW… BE TOP BIDDER & WIN!

Key facts

• Overlooking a pond
• Pole barn
• Shed

Tags

• 5.27 ACRES
• OVERLOOKING A POND
• NEIGHBORING HORSE FARM
• POLE BARN
• SHED
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.7% in Tuckahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in VA, #4,108 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D, commute F.
• Powhatan County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #25 of 131 in VA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 115 units permitted in Powhatan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Powhatan County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $195k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.34%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $537,831
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -63.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3354 Medway Ln	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,476 (0%)	1mo	$433,950	$175	100
3326 Medway Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,187 (-12%)	15mo	$569,000	$260	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,312
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $43,621
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23139

• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,947/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,708

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1380 chars)

   AUCTION, AUCTION, AUCTION: By order of the Sellers, this property is being auctioned to the highest bidder. .. That's no typo-You can own this 2 Story Colonial, 4Br, 3.5Bth, 2476±sf, 5.27±acres- ONLINE AUCTION - NAME YOUR PRICE! It SELLS at a high bid of $195,000 * or more: You can own this home for as little as $214,500 ( * incl 10% Buyer Premium). This 2-Story Colonial home is beautifully positioned on 5.27± acres, overlooking a pond & neighboring horse farm, is 10 min from I-288 & Rt. 711. It has 2,476sqft, 4 bedrooms & 3.5 bathrooms. 1st Floor: living room, dining room, family room w/ fireplace, & eat-in-kitchen. 2nd Floor: primary bedroom & en-suite bath, 3 more bedrooms & full hall bath. Basement: bonus room (rec room, guest suite or home office), full bath, utility room & 1-car garage. This 5+ acre property also includes a pole barn and a shed. Update / remodel this property to suit your design & taste. A rare Home Buyer / Investor dream opportunity! Area homes typically sell in the $525K-$675K range. There will be two Open Houses for viewing only: Monday April 27 11am-1pm and Tuesday April 28 11am-1pm. Bidding starts online Tuesday April 28 1:00PM and ends Thursday April 30 1:00PM. This house is a MUST see; don’t miss this chance, ACT NOW… BE TOP BIDDER & WIN!

2. 2026-04-12
   listed $195,000 Active 1380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1380 chars)

   AUCTION, AUCTION, AUCTION: By order of the Sellers, this property is being auctioned to the highest bidder. .. That's no typo-You can own this 2 Story Colonial, 4Br, 3.5Bth, 2476±sf, 5.27±acres- ONLINE AUCTION - NAME YOUR PRICE! It SELLS at a high bid of $195,000 * or more: You can own this home for as little as $214,500 ( * incl 10% Buyer Premium). This 2-Story Colonial home is beautifully positioned on 5.27± acres, overlooking a pond & neighboring horse farm, is 10 min from I-288 & Rt. 711. It has 2,476sqft, 4 bedrooms & 3.5 bathrooms. 1st Floor: living room, dining room, family room w/ fireplace, & eat-in-kitchen. 2nd Floor: primary bedroom & en-suite bath, 3 more bedrooms & full hall bath. Basement: bonus room (rec room, guest suite or home office), full bath, utility room & 1-car garage. This 5+ acre property also includes a pole barn and a shed. Update / remodel this property to suit your design & taste. A rare Home Buyer / Investor dream opportunity! Area homes typically sell in the $525K-$675K range. There will be two Open Houses for viewing only: Monday April 27 11am-1pm and Tuesday April 28 11am-1pm. Bidding starts online Tuesday April 28 1:00PM and ends Thursday April 30 1:00PM. This house is a MUST see; don’t miss this chance, ACT NOW… BE TOP BIDDER & WIN!

3. 1988-04-25
   soldstatus $113,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,947 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,947 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,947
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,267
• − Management: −$2,267
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $3,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$789
• After-tax cash flow: $5,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Powhatan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103030
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,302
• Composite: 59.31/100
• National rank: #934
• State rank: #25 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tuckahoe

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #4108

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 26,050
• Population (ZIP): 27,085

Population outlook (Powhatan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,489 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 29,584 · +0.3%
• By 2050: 28,166 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 24,221 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 18,871 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Powhatan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.1) · D 27.5% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.5pp · 2024: -44.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.1 2020: R+44.3 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+46.1 2008: R+40.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.42%
• Current HPI: 170.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+72.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $195,000 CVRMLS
• 1988-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,947 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.