944 Brush Prairie Rd · New Madrid, MO 63869

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Other public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1962 5,035 sqft lot $48/sqft · 9% below area Est $44k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two bedroom one bath home is the ultimate value opportunity at this listed price of $40,000. The interior features a smart, no waste layout that makes the home feel much larger than the actual square footage. For added convenience, the laundry area is located in the kitchen making it easy to manage. The exterior features a metal roof, a major asset for long-term maintenance. The home is located in a flood zone and needs some minor repairs. This is a great opportunity for investors and someone looking to downsize.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 5,035 sq ft lot
• Built 1962

Tags

• SMART NO WASTE LAYOUT
• LAUNDRY AREA IN KITCHEN
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($816 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#309 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• New Madrid County R-I (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #291 of 324 in MO (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in New Madrid County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• New Madrid County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.00%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,970
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -9.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $37,745
• Equity at exit: $36,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.82×
• Total profit: $98,838
• Equity at exit: $77,711

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63869

• Home prices YoY: 22.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $500

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $261	+0% $249	+5% $238	+10% $227
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $217	+0% $249	+5% $281	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $259	base $249	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $40,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    This two bedroom one bath home is the ultimate value opportunity at this listed price of $40,000. The interior features a smart, no waste layout that makes the home feel much larger than the actual square footage. For added convenience, the laundry area is located in the kitchen making it easy to manage. The exterior features a metal roof, a major asset for long-term maintenance. The home is located in a flood zone and needs some minor repairs. This is a great opportunity for investors and someone looking to downsize.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 95.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$2,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$783
• − Management: −$783
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $2,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$622
• After-tax cash flow: $2,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Madrid County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2900004
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,286
• Composite: 20.64/100
• National rank: #8543
• State rank: #291 of 324 in MO

Livability — New Madrid

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #14083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Madrid, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,184

Population outlook (New Madrid County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,712 people
• By 2030: 15,845 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 14,152 · -15.3%
• By 2050: 12,604 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 9,478 · -43.3%
• By 2100: 7,157 · -57.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 17% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · New Madrid

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.5) · D 22.9% · R 76.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -53.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.5 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+20.3 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.78%
• Current HPI: 276.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.