26 Liam Ln · Middlesex, PA 17015

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1987 5,445 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 26 Liam Ln in Carlisle, PA, a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 952 sq ft of living space. Recent plumbing updates provide added peace of mind. The home features laminate flooring throughout and a solid foundation in good condition. The kitchen includes functional cabinets, a stove, and refrigerator. A durable metal roof with a tar layer adds protection and longevity. Property sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Plumbing updates
• Laminate flooring
• Functional cabinets

Tags

• PLUMBING UPDATES
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• SOLID FOUNDATION
• FUNCTIONAL CABINETS
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $575 per month with 99 years remaining

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached modular/manufactured home; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Modular/Manufactured construction; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Above grade and below grade other structures listed
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (metered) heating fuel
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cumberland Valley SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 82.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 271.52%
• DSCR: 13.08
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.84×
• Total profit: $77,482
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.62×
• Total profit: $171,468
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $171/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $161

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $20,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $20,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 416-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $20,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $171 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $244 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$171
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $15,821
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,797
• After-tax cash flow: $11,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Middlesex

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $171 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.