366 Lucia Way · Cleveland, TX 77327

$168,992

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $123/sqft · 25% below area Est $227k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, all of which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2106 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,992

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.31%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,676
• List price: $168,992
• Delta: -25.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 County Road 2802	2.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+6%)	11mo	$99,695	$68	41
40 County Road 2801	1.97mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-9%)	12mo	$159,900	$128	35
1203 County Road 2222	2.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,406 (+2%)	25mo	$315,000	$224	32
39 County Road 2800	2.18mi	4/2.0	1,484 (+8%)	47mo	$180,000	$121	32
12647 Highway 105	1.99mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (+5%)	54mo	$175,300	$121	32
12939 Highway 105	2.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-10%)	16mo	$189,900	$154	30
49 County Road 2802	2.07mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+10%)	54mo	$240,000	$159	28
1907 County Road 2252	1.46mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+14%)	26mo	$235,000	$150	22
282 County Road 2801	2.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-12%)	35mo	$160,000	$132	21
234 County Road 2801	2.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-12%)	46mo	$115,000	$95	21
42 County Road 2802	2.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-12%)	47mo	$149,999	$123	21
152 County Road 2800	2.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-18%)	56mo	$125,000	$112	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,307
• Equity at exit: $25,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $16,479
• Equity at exit: $14,611

Cash invested: $47,318 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active
• Median asking: $148,990 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2106
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $168,992

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $280	+0% $222	+5% $164	+10% $105
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $149	+0% $222	+5% $295	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $265	base $222	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,248
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   remarks 423-char remark
2. 2026-06-01
   listed $168,992 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,466
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $22
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,875–$20,625 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to enhance its value further.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and add value to the home, both for resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tarkington Early Childhood School F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Tarkington Middle F TX #704/1,662 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Tarkington H S F TX #821/1,632 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B