406 Snow Dr · West Columbia, TX 77486

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1965 4,499 sqft lot $82/sqft · 43% below area Est $150k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the heart of West Columbia, this one-story home offers 3 bedrooms, and 1 bathroom.

Key facts

• 4,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.4% in West Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.20%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,842
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -43.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 W Brazos Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,034 (-1%)	2mo	$173,900	$168	70
114 N 15th St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (+6%)	4mo	$60,000	$54	67
135 Ellis Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,029 (-1%)	8mo	$192,000	$187	67
104 Prewitt Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+8%)	18mo	$72,000	$64	65
624 Houston St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+9%)	8mo	$155,000	$136	61
106 S Mattson St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	2mo	$187,000	$173	58
109 S Ringgold St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,043 (+0%)	16mo	$229,000	$220	49
606 S Gray Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	921 (-11%)	12mo	$169,000	$183	38
610 S Gray Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,187 (+14%)	11mo	$159,000	$134	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $58,515
• Equity at exit: $62,370

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $150,938
• Equity at exit: $121,824

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,058/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $424	+0% $400	+5% $376	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $295	-5% $348	+0% $400	+5% $453	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $422	base $400	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Ellis Ln Unit C West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	13d	1	0.30mi
136 Ellis Ln Unit C West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	9d	1	0.30mi
1106 S Columbia Dr Apt B West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	45d	1	1.16mi
1106 S Columbia Dr West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	1.16mi
1224 County Road 449 West Columbia, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $84,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $94,900 Active 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    Located in the heart of West Columbia, this one-story home offers 3 bedrooms, and 1 bathroom.

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $94,900 Active 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    Located in the heart of West Columbia, this one-story home offers 3 bedrooms, and 1 bathroom.

18. 2025-02-10
    historical
19. 2024-12-05
    listed $89,000 Active
20. 2024-01-25
    soldstatus
21. 2016-05-17
    soldstatus
22. 2011-12-30
    soldstatus
23. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus
24. 2008-02-18
    historical
25. 2007-11-01
    listed $44,900
26. 2006-10-17
    historical
27. 2006-09-05
    listed $39,900
28. 2006-09-05
    historical
29. 2006-06-08
    listed $39,900
30. 2006-06-05
    historical
31. 2006-02-07
    listed $44,900
32. 2005-10-28
    soldstatus
33. 1995-06-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,058 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$2,058
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $3,718
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$892
• After-tax cash flow: $3,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Columbia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Columbia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+111.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $94,900 BCBR
• 2025-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-11-01 Listed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2006-10-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-09-05 Listed $39,900 HARMLS
• 2006-06-08 Listed $39,900 HARMLS
• 2006-06-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-02-07 Listed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2005-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,058 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.