10324 Pinewood Way · Cobb, CA 95461

$174,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1965 6,534 sqft lot $152/sqft · 38% below area Est $282k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute Cabin located in Pinewood Way priced as a steal! 3 bed 1 bath home over 1100 square feet, possibly even more! Friendly community here. Priced much below comps! Perfect for an investor or a couple looking to buy their first home.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.3% in Cobb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $175k implies a 629% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.13%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,990
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -37.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16600 Mountain View Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (+2%)	4mo	$325,000	$278	64
10352 Twin Oaks	0.60mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-4%)	9mo	$135,000	$123	53
16300 Ponderosa Dr	0.73mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,130 (-2%)	7mo	$259,000	$229	50
16520 Schwartz Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (-7%)	10mo	$299,000	$279	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,306
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $54,226
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95461

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $636/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 238 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 237 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 236 DOM
18. 2025-01-09
    historical
19. 2024-10-21
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 1995-04-11
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 108.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$636
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $4,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $5,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 3,720

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.72%
• Current HPI: 161.0914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+837.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 1995-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $636 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.