180 Grace Chapel Rd Unit 242 · Blue Eye, MO 65611

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 2007 $150/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great Ozark Get-A-Way. Close to Branson, area attractions and lake activities. If looking for just a weekend getaway or full time living be sure to check this unit out.

Key facts

• $150 HOA
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Brushy Creek Estates
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $150 covering trash, water, and insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors; Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium (residential); Single-story living (above grade area listed)
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Asphalt road access; Private maintained road and private/county road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Slate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Tray ceilings; Elevator; High-speed internet; Window coverings and blinds; Fire alarm, smoke detectors, and fire sprinkler system; TV antenna
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($603/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Blue Eye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#449 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Eye Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 198 students, 48% FRL); Blue Eye Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 170 students, 51% FRL); Blue Eye High (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #35 of 521 statewide, top 8%, 178 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $156,784 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $20,350
• Equity at exit: $72,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $72,129
• Equity at exit: $109,179

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65611

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $980/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $98	+0% $50	+5% $2	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $-12	+0% $50	+5% $112	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $93	base $50	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 169-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $169,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$659/yr (+$55/mo · 67.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$980
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$2,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$529
• After-tax cash flow: $1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Eye R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,591
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4500
• State rank: #107 of 324 in MO

Livability — Blue Eye

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #18289

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Eye, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,784

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Current HPI: 204.4936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $169,000 SOMO
• 2008-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $980 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.