10222 S Chestnut St · Middlesex, NC 27557

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1957 0.30 ac lot Est $141k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Set among mature trees in Middlesex, this updated home offers low maintenance living with thoughtful modern finishes and no carpet throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, white cabinetry, and a glass tile backsplash. A raised bar provides natural separation between the kitchen and living areas while maintaining an open flow. Natural light fills the living room through a large picture window and continues into the dining area, which opens to a screened porch overlooking the wooded setting. The full bath includes a granite vanity and tiled bath surround. Located in the heart of Middlesex with direct access to US 264, this home supports small town livi

Key facts

• Updated home
• Granite countertops
• Raised bar

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GLASS TILE BACKSPLASH
• RAISED BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house; Entry at the front; Entry level 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; House structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Granite counters; Bathtub/shower combination; Smooth ceilings; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.9% in Middlesex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#551 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Southern Nash Middle (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 798 students, 69% FRL); Southern Nash High (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #409 of 535 statewide, top 77%, 1,070 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12311 E Wilson St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,105 (+10%)	8mo	$155,000	$140	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $91,769
• Equity at exit: $137,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $252,088
• Equity at exit: $269,179

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27557

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $347	+0% $295	+5% $243	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $224	+0% $295	+5% $366	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $342	base $295	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $185,000
18. 2026-04-01
    price $190,000
19. 2026-03-01
    price $195,000
20. 2026-02-05
    price $199,900
21. 2026-01-26
    listed $215,000 Active
22. 2025-12-19
    historical
23. 2025-11-11
    price $199,900
24. 2025-10-31
    price $209,000
25. 2025-10-23
    listed $215,000 Active
26. 2025-05-29
    price $56,000
27. 2025-01-25
    price $49,900
28. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus $170,000
29. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus $170,000
30. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus $170,000
31. 2021-08-26
    listed $164,900
32. 2021-08-26
    listed $164,900
33. 2021-04-19
    soldstatus $55,500
34. 2017-12-28
    historical
35. 2017-06-15
    listed $58,000
36. 2017-06-10
    historical
37. 2016-12-09
    listed $65,000
38. 2006-03-13
    soldstatus $25,000
39. 2006-03-13
    soldstatus $25,000
40. 2006-01-05
    historical
41. 2005-10-14
    listed $33,600
42. 2005-10-14
    listed $33,600
43. 2004-06-10
    historical
44. 2003-10-18
    listed $58,000
45. 2002-10-14
    price $123,500
46. 2002-10-14
    historical
47. 2002-04-13
    listed $56,000
48. 2000-07-07
    soldstatus $49,900
49. 2000-06-20
    price $126,000
50. 2000-01-24
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$678/yr (+$57/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $3,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 22.04/100
• National rank: #8198
• State rank: #155 of 178 in NC

Livability — Middlesex

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #20308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesex, NC
• Population (ZIP): 8,407

Population outlook (Nash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,107 people
• By 2030: 89,193 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 84,959 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,517 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 72,941 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 63,602 · -30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Nash

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+0.2 2012: D+0.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.73%
• Current HPI: 311.489
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+270.7% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $185,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $190,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $195,000 TMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $199,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $215,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $199,900 TMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $209,000 TMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $215,000 TMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $56,000 TMLS
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $49,900 TMLS
• 2021-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) $170,000 AMLSNC
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) $170,000 TMLS
• 2021-08-26 Listed $164,900 AMLSNC
• 2021-08-26 Listed $164,900 TMLS
• 2021-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 2017-12-28 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2017-06-15 Listed $58,000 TMLS
• 2017-06-10 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2016-12-09 Listed $65,000 TMLS
• 2006-03-13 Sold (MLS) $25,000 AMLSNC
• 2006-03-13 Sold (MLS) $25,000 TMLS
• 2006-01-05 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2005-10-14 Listed $33,600 AMLSNC
• 2005-10-14 Listed $33,600 TMLS
• 2004-06-10 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2003-10-18 Listed $58,000 TMLS
• 2002-10-14 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2002-10-14 Price Changed $123,500 TMLS
• 2002-04-13 Listed $56,000 TMLS
• 2000-07-07 Sold (MLS) $49,900 TMLS
• 2000-06-20 Price Changed $126,000 TMLS
• 2000-01-24 Listed $49,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.