407 Magnolia St · Athens, TX 75751

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2010 0.28 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in the heart of Athens! Located at 407 Magnolia, this mobile home offers an excellent opportunity for investors, flippers, landlords, or buyers looking for an affordable fixer-upper in growing East Texas. Situated on a spacious lot in an established area, this property has strong potential for renovation, rental income, resale, or long-term investment. This property does need rehab and is being sold as-is, making it the perfect project for someone ready to bring their vision and creativity. With strong demand for affordable housing in Athens and the surrounding East Texas market, this could be a great opportunity to add value and build equity. Conveniently located near down

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Near downtown athens
• Local shopping

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• AFFORDABLE FIXER-UPPER
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 31
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 19
• NEAR DOWNTOWN ATHENS
• LOCAL SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Henderson; Country: United States
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2010
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.28 acre); Located in the West Heights #1 subdivision; Directions: From downtown Athens, head north on N Palestine St (State Hwy 19). Turn left onto Magnolia St and continue to 407 Magnolia. Property will be on the right. Conveniently located near downtown Athens, local shopping, dining, schools, and medical facilities with easy access to Hwy 31 and Hwy 19.

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level 1) — approximately 10 x 12
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open floorplan; One living area; One dining area; Two total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 2.5% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#241 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Athens ISD (town): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #548 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Athens (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 587 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.13%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $24,726
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $64,894
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75751

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $823/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
625 York St Unit B Athens, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$795	$1.14	43d	1	0.32mi
207 W College St Unit 102 Athens, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$865	$0.96	43d	1	0.97mi
2100 State Highway 31 W Athens, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,307	$1.73	43d	1	1.23mi
401 S Carroll St Athens, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$1,020	$1.31	21d	12	1.25mi
409 Royal St Apt 5 Athens, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$950	$1.00	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $55,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $65,000 Active
18. 1987-07-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $823 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$823
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $4,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Athens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808870
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,617
• Composite: 28.73/100
• National rank: #6680
• State rank: #548 of 826 in TX

Livability — Athens

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #5796

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Athens, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 18,644
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,644
• Household income: $70,620
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.19%
• Current HPI: 192.3973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $65,000 NTREIS
• 1987-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $823 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.