3501 W 15th · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 1978 $62/sqft · 120% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTENTION INVESTORS!!! This is one you wont want to miss! A well maintained home with ceramic tile floors throughout! Large yard for plenty of room for the kids to play and not to mention the new beautiful school that is being built in the Watson Chapel School Dist! This home is priced to sell AS IS, as well as being income producing. Tenant pays $900.00 monthly! Please allow 24-48 hour notice for showings. Call today for more information and to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• Built 1978
• Listed 173 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($912 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.44%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $32,111
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 102.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1718 S Marsh	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+2%)	10mo	$30,000	$28	80
3506 W 12th Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	984 (-7%)	7mo	$25,000	$25	71
3307 Rose St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	2mo	$18,000	$18	68
3502 Lilac	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+2%)	8mo	$80,000	$75	66
4114 W 10th Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,090 (+3%)	11mo	$45,000	$41	60
3408 Iris St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+5%)	21mo	$32,000	$29	56
3308 Jonquil	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+2%)	22mo	$13,636	$13	53
709 S Birch St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+9%)	16mo	$31,250	$27	41
3200 Jonquil	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,125 (+6%)	22mo	$13,636	$12	39
4108 W 6th Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,168 (+11%)	14mo	$21,500	$18	36
3102 Jonquil	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+8%)	22mo	$13,636	$12	36
3307 Daffodil St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+11%)	22mo	$30,000	$26	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $10,159
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $35,437
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $912 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $500

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	43d	1	0.72mi
1107 S Cypress St Unit 1 Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	875	$700	$0.80	43d	1	1.03mi
2319 W 27th Ave Unit B Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	907	$795	$0.88	43d	1	1.10mi
2001 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	729	$750	$1.03	43d	1	1.33mi
1907 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.5	947	$1,150	$1.21	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-12-01
   listed $65,000 New Listing 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   ATTENTION INVESTORS!!! This is one you wont want to miss! A well maintained home with ceramic tile floors throughout! Large yard for plenty of room for the kids to play and not to mention the new beautiful school that is being built in the Watson Chapel School Dist! This home is priced to sell AS IS, as well as being income producing. Tenant pays $900.00 monthly! Please allow 24-48 hour notice for showings. Call today for more information and to schedule your showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $416 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$93/yr (+$8/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$875
• − Management: −$875
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$722
• After-tax cash flow: $3,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $65,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.