4415 W 21st Ave · Gary, IN 46404

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1955 7,000 sqft lot Est $94k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in ready home. Great affordable home that you can live in or add to your rental portfolio. This home features a refreshed exterior with lots of curb appeal. Inside you will find a large living room, updated kitchen with lovely countertops and backsplash, large flex room that can be used as a dining room or den or a laundry room, there are 3 good size bedrooms with brand new carpet and a remodeled full bathroom as well. This is a great home and it's ready for it new owner.

Key facts

• Refreshed exterior
• Lovely countertops
• Curb appeal

Tags

• REFRESHED EXTERIOR
• CURB APPEAL
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LOVELY COUNTERTOPS
• FLEX ROOM
• REMODELED FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service
• Home design: One-story home; Built in 1955
• Construction: 1955 construction
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view; Property listed as vacant

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Stone counters; Country-style kitchen; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.85%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4144 W 23rd Ave	0.28mi	3/1.5	900 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$89	84
4082 W 21st Pl	0.22mi	3/1.0	941 (+5%)	1mo	$129,900	$138	81
4251 W 20th Pl	0.09mi	3/1.0	950 (+6%)	9mo	$100,000	$105	79
1945 Lane St	0.29mi	3/1.0	925 (+3%)	4mo	$50,000	$54	79
4233 W 22nd Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	850 (-6%)	6mo	$82,000	$96	78
4241 W 22nd Plz	0.23mi	3/1.0	925 (+3%)	8mo	$63,000	$68	78
3902 W 21st Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	925 (+3%)	9mo	$126,000	$136	73
4309 W 19th Ave	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	973 (+8%)	1mo	$105,000	$108	68
4123 W 19th Pl	0.27mi	3/1.0	981 (+9%)	5mo	$75,000	$76	68
4216 W 19th Plz	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	985 (+9%)	9mo	$130,000	$132	61
1168 Hovey St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	931 (+3%)	4mo	$42,000	$45	53
1570 Hendricks St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	962 (+7%)	5mo	$132,000	$137	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,164
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $47,194
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46404

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,576/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $214	+0% $177	+5% $141	+10% $104
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $121	+0% $177	+5% $234	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $210	base $177	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 W 22nd Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	977	$1,395	$1.43	2d	1	0.11mi
4328 W 22nd Plz Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	3d	1	0.15mi
4263 W 22nd Pl Gary, IN	4.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	1d	1	0.16mi
4232 W 20th Ave Gary, IN	4.0	1.0	925	$1,395	$1.51	21d	1	0.20mi
4134 W 22nd Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	825	$1,395	$1.69	1d	1	0.22mi
4061 W 20th Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	925	$1,450	$1.57	1d	1	0.27mi
1043 Mount St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	1d	1	0.93mi
1531 Taney Pl Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,045	$1.16	1d	1	1.05mi
2939 W 10th Ave Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	744	$1,190	$1.60	1d	1	1.28mi
1595 Ellsworth St Unit 1 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	868	$1,100	$1.27	1d	1	1.31mi
1595 Ellsworth St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	868	$1,100	$1.27	2d	1	1.31mi
743 Hanley St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	1d	1	1.31mi
2264 Taft St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,275	$1.59	1d	1	1.35mi
2280 Roosevelt Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 481-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,576
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,428
• Household income: $42,256
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.76%
• Current HPI: 252.6463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.62%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+9930.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $129,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-05 Rental Removed $1,295 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-24 Listed for Rent $1,295 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-01 Rental Removed $1,195 BUILDIUM
• 2024-10-06 Price Changed $1,195 BUILDIUM
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $1,295 BUILDIUM

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,576 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.