7830 Rum Cay Ave · Orlando, FL 32822

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 1993 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Additions include a mini garage space and carport, brand new A/C and roof with many extras

Key facts

• Brand new a/c
• Brand new roof
• Carport

Tags

• CARPORT
• BRAND NEW A/C
• BRAND NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $886 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,214/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 4246% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.36%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $29,688
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $73,532
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32822

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $886

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $972	-5% $929	+0% $886	+5% $842	+10% $799
Rent	-10% $711	-5% $798	+0% $886	+5% $973	+10% $1,060
Rate	-1.0pp $948	-0.5pp $917	base $886	+0.5pp $853	+1.0pp $820

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7855 Harbor Bend Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1273	$2,580	$2.03	11d	1	0.19mi
7632 Harbor Lake Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,100	$1.63	11d	1	0.25mi
5812 Stafford Springs Trl Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,540	$1.74	17d	1	0.39mi
5812 Stafford Springs Trl Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,540	$1.74	8d	1	0.39mi
6400 Narcoossee Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,171	$2.22	2d	13	0.43mi
8225 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$3,200	$2.38	24d	1	0.58mi
9176 Fort Jefferson Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,349	$1.82	22d	1	0.58mi
8581 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	1659	$2,450	$1.48	24d	1	0.59mi
8562 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,540	$1.80	4d	1	0.63mi
6898 Tussilago Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.67mi
8467 Fort Thomas Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,300	$1.40	5d	1	0.72mi
6791 Tussilago Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,295	$1.39	24d	1	0.75mi
4117 Berkshire Bay Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$2,026	$1.88	8d	1	0.76mi
6404 S Goldenrod Rd Unit 2A Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	12d	1	0.90mi
6265 Contessa Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,650	$1.17	24d	1	0.93mi
4233 Anthony Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1210	$1,925	$1.59	14d	1	0.95mi
6335 Contessa Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,715	$1.22	24d	2	0.97mi
6335 Contessa Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,768	$1.33	2d	2	0.97mi
6512 S Goldenrod Rd Unit C Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1699	$2,150	$1.27	18d	1	0.99mi
6380 Contessa Dr #310 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,900	$1.35	3d	1	1.00mi
6380 Contessa Dr #305 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,750	$1.24	24d	1	1.00mi
8775 Sartori St #107 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1112	$2,000	$1.80	15d	1	1.00mi
9005 Lee Vista Blvd #1803 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,895	$1.84	24d	1	1.08mi
6492 S Goldenrod Rd Unit 45B Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1544	$2,195	$1.42	5d	1	1.08mi
9069 Lee Vista Blvd #1210 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1255	$1,895	$1.51	24d	1	1.11mi
6646 S Goldenrod Rd Unit 121A Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	24d	1	1.12mi
6630 S Goldenrod Rd Unit B Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1544	$2,200	$1.42	18d	1	1.14mi
6602 S Goldenrod Rd Unit 99A Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	4d	1	1.15mi
9165 Lee Vista Blvd #108 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$2,100	$1.75	24d	1	1.19mi
3007 Horse Shoe Ct Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,499	$1.47	14d	1	1.21mi
9141 Lee Vista Blvd #307 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$2,050	$1.71	22d	1	1.22mi
6960 Gibraltar Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,500	$1.08	24d	1	1.30mi
6201 Bent Pine Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,743	$1.81	22d	24	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $9,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,204
• After-tax cash flow: $8,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a new roof and A/C. It has potential for further value increases through painting, landscaping, and new flooring.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 67,081
• Household income: $56,540
• Rent vs Own: 58.0% rent · 42.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 4246.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 36% White 17% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 5% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 60% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.17%
• Current HPI: 355.5775
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com