523 N 31st · Waco, TX 76707

$167,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 432 Days on market

Built 1925 7,501 sqft lot $125/sqft · 18% below area Est $205k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2/1 has great potential for maximizing rental income. Property is currently vacant and being marketed for lease at $995.00 per month. Lease details upon request. This property can be sold as a one-off or grouped with other properties as an investment package. For further details, please ask.

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($963/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crestview El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 451 students, 94% FRL); Tennyson Middle (math 29% / reading 35%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 999 students, 86% FRL); Waco H S (math 26% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,011 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,522/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 704% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 432 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 432 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,677
• List price: $167,000
• Delta: -18.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
705 N 33rd St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,330 (-1%)	1mo	$144,900	$109	88
2912 E Edmond Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,262 (-6%)	0mo	$175,000	$139	72
3732 Grim Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	1mo	$199,900	$151	67
200 N 30th St	0.25mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,261 (-6%)	3mo	$315,000	$250	65
522 N 34th St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+11%)	4mo	$270,000	$182	63
3220 Edmond Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+3%)	1mo	$225,000	$164	63
3224 Edmond Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,313 (-2%)	4mo	$241,900	$184	61
3613 Erath St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,240 (-7%)	4mo	$75,000	$60	60
3104 Homan	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+5%)	4mo	$75,000	$53	53
3801 Erath Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+14%)	2mo	$292,000	$192	41
3900 Gorman Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+13%)	6mo	$275,000	$182	40
912 N 22nd St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-13%)	2mo	$199,999	$171	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,743
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-26,004
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76707

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,117/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $128	+0% $80	+5% $33	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $20	+0% $80	+5% $140	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $123	base $80	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2714 Morrow Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1484	$1,375	$0.93	23d	1	0.33mi
2601 Fort Ave Unit 4 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$990	$0.99	46d	1	0.39mi
2900 Austin Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,195	$1.02	46d	1	0.40mi
3621 Gorman Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1086	$1,950	$1.80	15d	1	0.44mi
3400 W Brookview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	865	$1,209	$1.40	15d	5	0.49mi
2632 Colonial Ave Unit B Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,050	$1.17	23d	1	0.60mi
608 N 23rd St Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	23d	1	0.62mi
3121 Colonial Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,600	$1.47	46d	1	0.63mi
3121 Colonial Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,600	$1.47	23d	1	0.63mi
3116 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	15d	1	0.65mi
615 N 23rd St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	23d	1	0.65mi
415 N 23rd St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	0.66mi
2724 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,100	$0.98	23d	1	0.66mi
2300 Washington Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,650	$1.34	15d	1	0.68mi
2705 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,599	$1.56	46d	1	0.70mi
2116 Morrow Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,650	$0.97	23d	1	0.76mi
1309 Sunset St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,295	$1.18	23d	1	0.82mi
3125 Ethel Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,900	$1.08	23d	1	0.84mi
3701 Parkwood St Unit 3703 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	15d	1	0.86mi
700 S Valley Mills Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$995	$1.17	15d	2	0.92mi
1923 Austin Ave Unit 5202 Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1265	$1,395	$1.10	23d	1	0.93mi
1300 N 43rd St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1109	$860	$0.78	23d	1	0.96mi
1400 N 23rd St Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,575	$0.95	15d	1	0.98mi
4019 Huaco Ln Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	23d	1	0.98mi
3007 Parrott Ave Unit 1 Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,650	$1.13	23d	1	0.99mi
2001 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1628	$1,100	$0.68	46d	1	1.01mi
1000 N 19th St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	1.02mi
1113 N New Rd Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,620	$1.22	23d	1	1.02mi
2511 Parrott Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	46d	1	1.05mi
3812 Hiland Dr Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$995	$0.89	15d	1	1.12mi
2601 Flint Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,720	$1.27	46d	1	1.13mi
4000 Acree St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	984	$1,295	$1.32	23d	1	1.15mi
1901 N 28th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	1.18mi
4320 Guthrie Cir Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,700	$1.59	23d	1	1.20mi
1821 Algonquin St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	930	$1,150	$1.24	46d	1	1.31mi
1914 Ross Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,495	$1.14	23d	1	1.31mi
3821 Lasker Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,850	$1.53	23d	1	1.32mi
1815 Seneca Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	1.36mi
2714 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	979	$1,300	$1.33	46d	1	1.37mi
3625 Maple Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	46d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $167,000 Active 432 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,000 Active 429 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,000 Active 428 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,000 Active 427 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,000 Active 426 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $167,000 Active 424 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,000 Active 423 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $167,000 Active 421 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,000 Active 420 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $167,000 Active 419 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,000 Active 418 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $167,000 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,000 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,000 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,000 Active 412 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,000 Active 411 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $167,000 Active 410 DOM
18. 2024-10-01
    listed $167,000 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    This 2/1 has great potential for maximizing rental income. Property is currently vacant and being marketed for lease at $995.00 per month. Lease details upon request. This property can be sold as a one-off or grouped with other properties as an investment package. For further details, please ask.

19. 2024-03-22
    historical
20. 2023-06-14
    listed $189,000
21. 2019-09-16
    historical
22. 2018-01-30
    listed $74,700
23. 2017-03-02
    soldstatus
24. 2011-06-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,117 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$939/yr (+$78/mo · 44.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,117
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$1,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$439
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,879
• Household income: $40,443
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 704.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 32% Two or more races 26% White 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.95%
• Current HPI: 239.639
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+123.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-01 Listed $167,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-14 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2019-09-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-01-30 Listed $74,700 NTREIS
• 2017-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,117 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.