17 Mesa Oaks · Wright City, MO 63390

$98,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two bedroom one bath 14x50 on private two plus wooded acre lot close to hwy70. Needs renovation has not been lived in for ten year& apos; s. Has electric and septic on sight. The property is being sold as/is with no warranty.

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.3% in Wright City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#194 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wright City R-II Of Warren County (town): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #179 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $98,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.57%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,853
• Equity at exit: $14,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $28,743
• Equity at exit: $8,516

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63390

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $267/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 225-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $98,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $267 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$689/yr (+$57/mo · 258.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$267
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $2,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$536
• After-tax cash flow: $3,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wright City R-II Of Warren County
• NCES district ID: 2932310
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,573
• Composite: 32.19/100
• National rank: #5781
• State rank: #179 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wright City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #10018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,856

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.69%
• Current HPI: 188.5856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $98,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $267 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.