3424 W Brainerd St · West Pensacola, FL 32505

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1948 Est $199k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**** Cute cottage with country feel close to downtown, beach and entertainment. Here is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home with updated and original features which gives you the authentic look and style of the area with todays comforts. You will love the tile floors in the foyer, master bath and kitchen as well as the original hardwood floors in the rest of the home. The updated paint colors give you that modern feel and blends perfectly with the original doors and trim. Come see this beautiful home as you won't be disappointed!!

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Fenced backyard
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• TILE FLOORS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property; Living area approximately 1370
• Exterior features: Built in 1948

Interior

• Interior features: Located in the South Pensacola subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 7.7% in West Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.92%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2705 W Brainerd St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+1%)	1mo	$225,000	$163	73
2906 W Moreno St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-4%)	8mo	$113,500	$86	63
2910 W Lee St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-7%)	7mo	$199,990	$157	63
3807 W Moreno St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (+6%)	8mo	$210,000	$145	58
3802 W Gadsden St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+7%)	6mo	$180,000	$123	56
700 Lynch St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,401 (+2%)	10mo	$74,000	$53	53
3403 W Hernandez	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-7%)	9mo	$147,000	$115	53
1719 Larry Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,215 (-11%)	11mo	$190,000	$156	52
3400 W Hernandez St	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,327 (-3%)	11mo	$225,000	$170	50
1009 N U St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+8%)	7mo	$172,872	$116	49
3215 Bayou Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-12%)	4mo	$215,000	$179	41
1100 N T St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+11%)	8mo	$95,000	$63	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $10,443
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $57,511
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32505

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $794/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
852 Garnet St Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,150	$1.00	13d	1	0.28mi
2802 W Gonzalez St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1824	$1,600	$0.88	23d	1	0.41mi
419 N Wentworth St Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	23d	1	0.48mi
3740 Frontera Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,295	$1.26	23d	1	0.57mi
2303 W Brainerd St Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	955	$1,100	$1.15	23d	1	0.74mi
3418 Luke St Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1620	$1,800	$1.11	23d	1	0.98mi
315 N Pace Blvd Unit b Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,650	$1.23	23d	1	1.04mi
315 N Pace Blvd Unit A Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,850	$1.38	23d	1	1.04mi
309 N Pace Blvd Unit B Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,650	$1.23	23d	1	1.06mi
3417 W Fisher St Unit C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,350	$1.22	23d	1	1.07mi
1717 W Cervantes St Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,169	$1.20	13d	3	1.16mi
2108 W Bobe St Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,100	$1.20	23d	1	1.17mi
1804 W Belmont St Unit A Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	925	$995	$1.08	21d	1	1.19mi
707 New York Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1266	$1,185	$0.94	23d	1	1.22mi
4519 Martha Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	1.26mi
239 N K St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,950	$1.40	23d	1	1.31mi
190 N Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,174	$1.28	13d	3	1.46mi
101 Vanderbilt Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,850	$1.68	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $125,000 Active
15. 2021-01-22
    soldstatus $96,000 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    **** Cute cottage with country feel close to downtown, beach and entertainment. Here is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home with updated and original features which gives you the authentic look and style of the area with todays comforts. You will love the tile floors in the foyer, master bath and kitchen as well as the original hardwood floors in the rest of the home. The updated paint colors give you that modern feel and blends perfectly with the original doors and trim. Come see this beautiful home as you won't be disappointed!!

16. 2020-12-02
    listed $92,900 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    **** Cute cottage with country feel close to downtown, beach and entertainment. Here is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home with updated and original features which gives you the authentic look and style of the area with todays comforts. You will love the tile floors in the foyer, master bath and kitchen as well as the original hardwood floors in the rest of the home. The updated paint colors give you that modern feel and blends perfectly with the original doors and trim. Come see this beautiful home as you won't be disappointed!!

17. 2017-09-12
    historical
18. 2017-08-29
    listed $20,000
19. 2017-01-20
    historical
20. 2017-01-05
    listed $18,000
21. 2016-01-01
    historical
22. 2012-10-24
    listed $20,000
23. 2009-12-24
    historical
24. 2009-06-24
    listed $59,900
25. 2003-10-09
    soldstatus $58,000
26. 2003-10-03
    soldstatus $58,000
27. 2003-04-14
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $794 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$794
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,368
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$808
• After-tax cash flow: $4,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Pensacola

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #629
• US rank: #12275

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,877
• Household income: $44,783
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.10%
• Current HPI: 205.45
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.92%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+108.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-01-22 Sold (MLS) $96,000 PARMLS
• 2020-12-02 Listed $92,900 PARMLS
• 2017-09-12 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2017-08-29 Listed $20,000 PARMLS
• 2017-01-20 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2017-01-05 Listed $18,000 PARMLS
• 2016-01-01 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2012-10-24 Listed $20,000 PARMLS
• 2009-12-24 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2009-06-24 Listed $59,900 PARMLS
• 2003-10-09 Sold (MLS) $58,000 PARMLS
• 2003-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-14 Listed $59,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $794 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.