485 Bushong Beach Dr · Hay, MI 48624

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily · 287 Days on market

Built 1900 4,792 sqft lot $102/sqft · 45% below area Est $135k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

Key facts

• Lakefront access
• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• LAKEFRONT ACCESS
• PROXIMITY TO SMALLWOOD LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.39%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,186
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -44.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
625 E Sun Oil Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (+1)	824 (+12%)	22mo	$150,000	$182	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $43,145
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $108,850
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $657

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $910	-5% $889	+0% $868	+5% $847	+10% $825
Rent	-10% $729	-5% $798	+0% $868	+5% $937	+10% $1,006
Rate	-1.0pp $906	-0.5pp $887	base $868	+0.5pp $848	+1.0pp $829

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 287 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-03-31
   status Active 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

6. 2026-03-27
   historical 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

7. 2026-02-10
   status Active 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

8. 2026-02-10
   status Active 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

9. 2026-02-01
   historical 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

10. 2026-02-01
    historical 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

11. 2025-08-06
    listed $75,000 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

12. 2025-08-06
    listed $75,000 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Summer, lake life access without the special assessments? If that is the case, this is the cozy cottage for you. Make an Appointment. Quite and peaceful retreat in Gladwin County! This very cozy cottage has been family-owned for quite some time and is ready for new ownership. Proximity to and directly across the street from Smallwood Lake without the Special Assessments. Lakefront access and the end of the street.

13. 2007-10-30
    historical
14. 2004-10-12
    listed $30,000
15. 2004-10-04
    historical
16. 2003-01-06
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $745 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$410/yr (+$34/mo · 122.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,353
• After-tax cash flow: $8,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+150.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-10-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-10-12 Listed $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-10-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-01-06 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · -50.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.