420 Jefferson Ave · Alton, IL 62002

$19,300

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1921 5,074 sqft lot $25/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MAKE THIS YOUR NEXT GREAT REHAB PROJECT! - 3 bedroom, cape cod, brick house in great neighborhood with lots of value - Homes in area are selling for over $100k- PRICED TO SELL FAST! MUST SEE! Property sold completely "AS-IS" - Seller makes no warranties, or seller repair credits. No survey or termite provided by Seller. Property conveyed with Special Warranty Deed and 100% tax proration. Please provide proof of funds and signed disclosures with all offers. - THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE

Key facts

• 5,074 sq ft lot
• Built 1921
• Listed 126 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $925 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 63.8% vs local median 6.4% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Alton CUSD 11 (suburban): math 12% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #544 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $133 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $579 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $16,984 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 63.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 205.31%
• DSCR: 10.14
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,061
• List price: $19,300
• Delta: -82.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.70×
• Total profit: $63,240
• Equity at exit: $2,878

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.52×
• Total profit: $164,919
• Equity at exit: $1,669

Cash invested: $5,404 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62002

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$101
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $919/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $235

Max offer price $19,300

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,825
• Closing costs: $579
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,300 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,300 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,300 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,300 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,300 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,300 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,300 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,300 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $19,300 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,300 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,300 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,300 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-04-30
    price $19,300 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    MAKE THIS YOUR NEXT GREAT REHAB PROJECT! - 3 bedroom, cape cod, brick house in great neighborhood with lots of value - Homes in area are selling for over $100k- PRICED TO SELL FAST! MUST SEE! Property sold completely "AS-IS" - Seller makes no warranties, or seller repair credits. No survey or termite provided by Seller. Property conveyed with Special Warranty Deed and 100% tax proration. Please provide proof of funds and signed disclosures with all offers. - THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE

14. 2026-03-27
    price $19,350 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    MAKE THIS YOUR NEXT GREAT REHAB PROJECT! - 3 bedroom, cape cod, brick house in great neighborhood with lots of value - Homes in area are selling for over $100k- PRICED TO SELL FAST! MUST SEE! Property sold completely "AS-IS" - Seller makes no warranties, or seller repair credits. No survey or termite provided by Seller. Property conveyed with Special Warranty Deed and 100% tax proration. Please provide proof of funds and signed disclosures with all offers. - THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE

15. 2026-02-13
    price $19,400 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    MAKE THIS YOUR NEXT GREAT REHAB PROJECT! - 3 bedroom, cape cod, brick house in great neighborhood with lots of value - Homes in area are selling for over $100k- PRICED TO SELL FAST! MUST SEE! Property sold completely "AS-IS" - Seller makes no warranties, or seller repair credits. No survey or termite provided by Seller. Property conveyed with Special Warranty Deed and 100% tax proration. Please provide proof of funds and signed disclosures with all offers. - THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE

16. 2026-02-12
    listed $18,900 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    MAKE THIS YOUR NEXT GREAT REHAB PROJECT! - 3 bedroom, cape cod, brick house in great neighborhood with lots of value - Homes in area are selling for over $100k- PRICED TO SELL FAST! MUST SEE! Property sold completely "AS-IS" - Seller makes no warranties, or seller repair credits. No survey or termite provided by Seller. Property conveyed with Special Warranty Deed and 100% tax proration. Please provide proof of funds and signed disclosures with all offers. - THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE

17. 2026-02-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    MAKE THIS YOUR NEXT GREAT REHAB PROJECT! - 3 bedroom, cape cod, brick house in great neighborhood with lots of value - Homes in area are selling for over $100k- PRICED TO SELL FAST! MUST SEE! Property sold completely "AS-IS" - Seller makes no warranties, or seller repair credits. No survey or termite provided by Seller. Property conveyed with Special Warranty Deed and 100% tax proration. Please provide proof of funds and signed disclosures with all offers. - THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE

18. 2026-02-02
    status Active
19. 2026-01-22
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
20. 2025-11-10
    listed Active
21. 2024-12-21
    historical
22. 2024-11-20
    listed $16,000 Active
23. 2024-11-15
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,081
• − Property taxes: −$919
• − Insurance: −$96
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$561
• Taxable income: $11,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,762
• After-tax cash flow: $8,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alton CUSD 11
• NCES district ID: 1703600
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,257
• Composite: 11.34/100
• National rank: #9710
• State rank: #544 of 620 in IL

Livability — Alton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #14289

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alton, IL
• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• City population: 29,543
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 29,543
• Household income: $61,414
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.43%
• Current HPI: 194.7313
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.24%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+20.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $19,300 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $19,350 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $19,400 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $18,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-21 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-20 Listed $16,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-15 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $919 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.