8414 Ryan Ave · Ensley, FL 32534

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,247 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2007 3,423 sqft lot $140/sqft · 21% below area Est $222k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An excellent opportunity to own an affordable home in Pensacola. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property offers a practical layout and an accessible price point for qualified buyers seeking a primary residence. The home features a straightforward floor plan with comfortable living spaces and the flexibility to make it your own. Whether you’re purchasing your first home or looking to settle into a well-established area, this property provides a solid path to homeownership. This home is available for primary residence buyers only. Household income must not exceed 120% of the Area Median Income (AMI), making it a great opportunity for qualified buyers to achieve affordable homeownership. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways, this property offers both value and accessibility. A great opportunity for eligible buyers—reach out today for more details and to confirm qualifications.

Key facts

• 3,423 sq ft lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ensley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#133 in FL, #1,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 113 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $175k implies a 775% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,477
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -21.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8601 Walnut Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,307 (+5%)	2mo	$218,700	$167	84
8422 Cherry Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-8%)	3mo	$219,000	$191	82
710 W Detroit Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-8%)	1mo	$199,000	$172	82
514 W Ensley St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,179 (-6%)	1mo	$230,000	$195	81
600 W Hannah St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+2%)	4mo	$115,000	$91	78
8515 Rose Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-8%)	2mo	$221,000	$193	78
8603 Russell Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,221 (-2%)	1mo	$177,500	$145	76
7950 Hayworth Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,205 (-3%)	2mo	$177,500	$147	69
8450 Jarmen Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+5%)	1mo	$225,000	$172	64
8408 Pond Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+10%)	4mo	$80,000	$58	63
7900 Atilla Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-6%)	2mo	$230,000	$196	63
8331 Durand Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+10%)	1mo	$120,000	$87	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,085
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $15,398
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32534

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,325

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $305	+0% $256	+5% $206	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $191	+0% $256	+5% $321	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $300	base $256	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8660 Figland Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,550	$1.40	14d	1	0.25mi
50 E Ensley St Unit A Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	840	$1,150	$1.37	14d	1	0.55mi
1540 Wilimar Pl Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	14d	1	0.94mi
130 E 9 Mile Rd #5 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	925	$1,095	$1.18	24d	1	1.06mi
9095 Airway Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1542	$1,809	$1.17	14d	19	1.34mi
8651 Airway Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,682	$1.44	22d	15	1.47mi
288 E Olive Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,045	$1.39	24d	2	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-03-19
   listed $175,000 Active 929-char remark

   Show marketing remark (929 chars)

   An excellent opportunity to own an affordable home in Pensacola. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath property offers a practical layout and an accessible price point for qualified buyers seeking a primary residence. The home features a straightforward floor plan with comfortable living spaces and the flexibility to make it your own. Whether you’re purchasing your first home or looking to settle into a well-established area, this property provides a solid path to homeownership. This home is available for primary residence buyers only. Household income must not exceed 120% of the Area Median Income (AMI), making it a great opportunity for qualified buyers to achieve affordable homeownership. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways, this property offers both value and accessibility. A great opportunity for eligible buyers—reach out today for more details and to confirm qualifications.

7. 2006-12-01
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$777/yr (+$65/mo · 114.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $179
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43
• After-tax cash flow: $3,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ensley

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #1996

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ensley, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 15,879
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,104
• Household income: $58,992
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 540.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 30% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 255.7617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+775.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $175,000 PARMLS
• 2006-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +24.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.