102 Wrightwood Pl · Sugarland Run, VA 20164

$425,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,013 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1974 7,841 sqft lot $211/sqft · 37% below area Est $674k · 37% under $79/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in desirable Sugarland Run! This colonial-style 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is full of potential. Featuring a spacious layout and an in-ground pool, this fixer-upper presents a fantastic opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to renovate and build equity. Located in an established community with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this property is being sold as-is. We have all offers in hand and are not accepting anymore.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $79.94 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance and pool(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway with 2 spaces (driveway); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available
• Home design: Detached property; Two floors; Fee simple ownership; Year built estimated
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Breezeway; Porch(es); Personal in-ground concrete pool; Outside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Not furnished; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $406k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Sugarland Run — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#64 in VA, #1,981 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,367 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $674,260
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -36.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Wrightwood Pl	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,013 (0%)	1mo	$530,000	$263	99
730 Sugarland Run Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,013 (0%)	0mo	$673,500	$335	97
9 Wrightwood Pl	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,013 (0%)	3mo	$678,000	$337	93
123 S Fox Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,013 (0%)	2mo	$710,000	$353	84
123 Hillsdale Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,994 (-1%)	4mo	$708,250	$355	69
126 Hillsdale Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,013 (0%)	5mo	$640,000	$318	68
229 W Meadowland Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	1,921 (-5%)	7mo	$649,900	$338	65
101 Hopeland Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,894 (-6%)	2mo	$720,500	$380	63
20 Running Brook Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,921 (-5%)	1mo	$650,000	$338	62
4 Pheasant Run Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,921 (-5%)	4mo	$660,000	$344	60
902 Old River Way Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,276 (+13%)	6mo	$670,000	$294	54
110 Sugarland Run Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,926 (-4%)	7mo	$620,000	$322	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-57,010
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $26,847
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20164

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,544 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,077/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,681

Max offer price $405,850

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $12	+0% $-108	+5% $-229	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-248	+0% $-108	+5% $32	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $0	base $-108	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Carousel Ct Sterling, VA	4.0	2.5	1540	$2,700	$1.75	6d	1	0.37mi
10854 Monticello Ct Great Falls, VA	4.0	2.5	2686	$3,900	$1.45	25d	1	0.47mi
21193 Millwood Sq Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	1932	$2,995	$1.55	2d	1	0.54mi
20 Running Brook Ln Sterling, VA	4.0	2.0	1921	$3,500	$1.82	16d	1	0.61mi
511 Avondale Dr Sterling, VA	4.0	2.5	2097	$3,600	$1.72	11d	1	0.61mi
20830 Butterwood Falls Ter Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	1644	$3,062	$1.86	44d	1	0.62mi
322 Sugarland Run Dr Sterling, VA	4.0	3.0	1921	$3,900	$2.03	44d	1	0.67mi
20594 Quarterpath Trace Cir Sterling, VA	4.0	2.5	2879	$3,500	$1.22	44d	1	0.92mi
20449 Winfield Pl Sterling, VA	4.0	2.5	2868	$3,790	$1.32	0d	1	1.05mi
21477 Rusty Blackhaw Sq Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	2070	$3,000	$1.45	21d	1	1.09mi
703 Kentland Dr Great Falls, VA	4.0	2.5	2094	$4,499	$2.15	25d	1	1.10mi
20539 Ashley Ter Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	2060	$3,500	$1.70	12d	1	1.15mi
46727 Manchester Ter Sterling, VA	4.0	3.5	2239	$3,500	$1.56	22d	1	1.16mi
20650 Muddy Harbour Sq Sterling, VA	4.0	3.5	2412	$3,400	$1.41	13d	1	1.19mi
20965 Promontory Sq Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	2166	$3,000	$1.39	17d	1	1.20mi
20965 Promontory Sq Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	2166	$3,000	$1.39	20d	1	1.20mi
46678 Cavendish Sq Sterling, VA	4.0	2.5	2114	$3,500	$1.66	44d	1	1.35mi
46678 Cavendish Sq Unit 1 Sterling, VA	4.0	2.5	2114	$3,500	$1.66	44d	1	1.35mi
20904 Sandstone Sq Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	2200	$3,000	$1.36	44d	1	1.44mi
20340 Brentmeade Ter Sterling, VA	3.0	2.5	2172	$4,000	$1.84	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,077 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,077 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$5,077
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,402
• − Management: −$3,402
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$8,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,064
• After-tax cash flow: $763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Sugarland Run

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #1981

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugarland Run, VA
• County: Loudoun County · 393,062 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 43,436
• Household income: $135,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 579.0

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 30% Two or more races 20% Asian 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Indo-European 8% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.79%
• Current HPI: 369.4596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.22%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+24.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $530,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,077 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.