707 Michelia St · Magnolia, TX 77354

$287,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2025 6,250 sqft lot $166/sqft · 8% below area Est $312k · 8% under $48/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this exceptional new construction home at 707 Michelia Street in Magnolia, TX. This thoughtfully designed 1,732 square foot home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality for everyday living. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms with owner's bedroom in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms with quality fixtures and finishes • 1,732 square feet of well-planned interior space • Open-concept living space creating seamless flow between kitchen, dining, and family areas • New construction by trusted M/I Homes • Modern design elements and attention to detail throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Located in a desirable Magnolia neighborhood • Close to local parks and recreational opportunities • Family-friendly community with well-maintained streets and welcoming atmosphere The open-concept layout ensures natural flow throughout the main living areas, creating an inviting environment for both daily activities and entertaining guests. The owner's bedroom in its own private corner provides a tranquil retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This new construction home eliminates the uncertainty of older homes, offering move-in ready convenience with modern systems, energy-efficient features, and builder warranties. Every detail has been thoughtfully planned to maximize comfort, functionality, and natural light. MLS# 90031296

Key facts

• Chef's dream kitchen
• Outdoor area
• Covered patio

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• BRIGHT AND OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF'S DREAM KITCHEN
• STATE-OF-THE-ART APPLIANCES
• OUTDOOR AREA
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $189,984 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,363
• List price: $287,990
• Delta: -7.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $135,212
• Equity at exit: $259,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $401,899
• Equity at exit: $559,501

Cash invested: $80,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $242,134

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-178	+0% $-260	+5% $-341	+10% $-423
Rent	-10% $-410	-5% $-335	+0% $-260	+5% $-185	+10% $-109
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-186	base $-260	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,998
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	45d	1	0.29mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.30mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	24d	1	0.35mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	24d	1	0.36mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	7d	1	0.41mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	45d	1	0.53mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.74mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	0.75mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	0.77mi
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $287,990 1473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Discover this exceptional new construction home at 707 Michelia Street in Magnolia, TX. This thoughtfully designed 1,732 square foot home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality for everyday living. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms with owner's bedroom in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms with quality fixtures and finishes • 1,732 square feet of well-planned interior space • Open-concept living space creating seamless flow between kitchen, dining, and family areas • New construction by trusted M/I Homes • Modern design elements and attention to detail throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Located in a desirable Magnolia neighborhood • Close to local parks and recreational opportunities • Family-friendly community with well-maintained streets and welcoming atmosphere The open-concept layout ensures natural flow throughout the main living areas, creating an inviting environment for both daily activities and entertaining guests. The owner's bedroom in its own private corner provides a tranquil retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This new construction home eliminates the uncertainty of older homes, offering move-in ready convenience with modern systems, energy-efficient features, and builder warranties. Every detail has been thoughtfully planned to maximize comfort, functionality, and natural light. MLS# 90031296

2. 2026-05-18
   price $287,990 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   READY NOW! The Desoto Floorplan, awaits a stunning single-story home that will take your breath away. With 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 modern bathrooms, and a den this home is perfect for families looking for a comfortable and cozy living space. Upon entering, you'll be greeted by a bright and open floor plan that is ideal for hosting friends and family. Enjoy the study, perfect for an at home office! The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting sleek countertops and state-of-the-art appliances that make cooking a breeze. The outdoor area is the perfect place for kids and pets to play safely while enjoying the fresh air. This home is a gem, and you don't want to miss the opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover all the possibilities this new home has to offer!

3. 2026-03-31
   price $291,990 1473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Discover this exceptional new construction home at 707 Michelia Street in Magnolia, TX. This thoughtfully designed 1,732 square foot home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality for everyday living. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms with owner's bedroom in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms with quality fixtures and finishes • 1,732 square feet of well-planned interior space • Open-concept living space creating seamless flow between kitchen, dining, and family areas • New construction by trusted M/I Homes • Modern design elements and attention to detail throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Located in a desirable Magnolia neighborhood • Close to local parks and recreational opportunities • Family-friendly community with well-maintained streets and welcoming atmosphere The open-concept layout ensures natural flow throughout the main living areas, creating an inviting environment for both daily activities and entertaining guests. The owner's bedroom in its own private corner provides a tranquil retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This new construction home eliminates the uncertainty of older homes, offering move-in ready convenience with modern systems, energy-efficient features, and builder warranties. Every detail has been thoughtfully planned to maximize comfort, functionality, and natural light. MLS# 90031296

4. 2026-03-30
   price $291,990 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   READY NOW! The Desoto Floorplan, awaits a stunning single-story home that will take your breath away. With 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 modern bathrooms, and a den this home is perfect for families looking for a comfortable and cozy living space. Upon entering, you'll be greeted by a bright and open floor plan that is ideal for hosting friends and family. Enjoy the study, perfect for an at home office! The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting sleek countertops and state-of-the-art appliances that make cooking a breeze. The outdoor area is the perfect place for kids and pets to play safely while enjoying the fresh air. This home is a gem, and you don't want to miss the opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover all the possibilities this new home has to offer!

5. 2026-03-03
   price $297,990 1473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Discover this exceptional new construction home at 707 Michelia Street in Magnolia, TX. This thoughtfully designed 1,732 square foot home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality for everyday living. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms with owner's bedroom in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms with quality fixtures and finishes • 1,732 square feet of well-planned interior space • Open-concept living space creating seamless flow between kitchen, dining, and family areas • New construction by trusted M/I Homes • Modern design elements and attention to detail throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Located in a desirable Magnolia neighborhood • Close to local parks and recreational opportunities • Family-friendly community with well-maintained streets and welcoming atmosphere The open-concept layout ensures natural flow throughout the main living areas, creating an inviting environment for both daily activities and entertaining guests. The owner's bedroom in its own private corner provides a tranquil retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This new construction home eliminates the uncertainty of older homes, offering move-in ready convenience with modern systems, energy-efficient features, and builder warranties. Every detail has been thoughtfully planned to maximize comfort, functionality, and natural light. MLS# 90031296

6. 2026-03-02
   price $297,990 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   READY NOW! The Desoto Floorplan, awaits a stunning single-story home that will take your breath away. With 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 modern bathrooms, and a den this home is perfect for families looking for a comfortable and cozy living space. Upon entering, you'll be greeted by a bright and open floor plan that is ideal for hosting friends and family. Enjoy the study, perfect for an at home office! The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting sleek countertops and state-of-the-art appliances that make cooking a breeze. The outdoor area is the perfect place for kids and pets to play safely while enjoying the fresh air. This home is a gem, and you don't want to miss the opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover all the possibilities this new home has to offer!

7. 2026-02-24
   price $307,990 1473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Discover this exceptional new construction home at 707 Michelia Street in Magnolia, TX. This thoughtfully designed 1,732 square foot home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality for everyday living. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms with owner's bedroom in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms with quality fixtures and finishes • 1,732 square feet of well-planned interior space • Open-concept living space creating seamless flow between kitchen, dining, and family areas • New construction by trusted M/I Homes • Modern design elements and attention to detail throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Located in a desirable Magnolia neighborhood • Close to local parks and recreational opportunities • Family-friendly community with well-maintained streets and welcoming atmosphere The open-concept layout ensures natural flow throughout the main living areas, creating an inviting environment for both daily activities and entertaining guests. The owner's bedroom in its own private corner provides a tranquil retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This new construction home eliminates the uncertainty of older homes, offering move-in ready convenience with modern systems, energy-efficient features, and builder warranties. Every detail has been thoughtfully planned to maximize comfort, functionality, and natural light. MLS# 90031296

8. 2026-02-23
   price $307,990 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   READY NOW! The Desoto Floorplan, awaits a stunning single-story home that will take your breath away. With 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 modern bathrooms, and a den this home is perfect for families looking for a comfortable and cozy living space. Upon entering, you'll be greeted by a bright and open floor plan that is ideal for hosting friends and family. Enjoy the study, perfect for an at home office! The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting sleek countertops and state-of-the-art appliances that make cooking a breeze. The outdoor area is the perfect place for kids and pets to play safely while enjoying the fresh air. This home is a gem, and you don't want to miss the opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover all the possibilities this new home has to offer!

9. 2026-01-15
   listed $310,990 Active 1473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Discover this exceptional new construction home at 707 Michelia Street in Magnolia, TX. This thoughtfully designed 1,732 square foot home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality for everyday living. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms with owner's bedroom in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms with quality fixtures and finishes • 1,732 square feet of well-planned interior space • Open-concept living space creating seamless flow between kitchen, dining, and family areas • New construction by trusted M/I Homes • Modern design elements and attention to detail throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Located in a desirable Magnolia neighborhood • Close to local parks and recreational opportunities • Family-friendly community with well-maintained streets and welcoming atmosphere The open-concept layout ensures natural flow throughout the main living areas, creating an inviting environment for both daily activities and entertaining guests. The owner's bedroom in its own private corner provides a tranquil retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This new construction home eliminates the uncertainty of older homes, offering move-in ready convenience with modern systems, energy-efficient features, and builder warranties. Every detail has been thoughtfully planned to maximize comfort, functionality, and natural light. MLS# 90031296

10. 2026-01-13
    listed $310,990 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    READY NOW! The Desoto Floorplan, awaits a stunning single-story home that will take your breath away. With 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 modern bathrooms, and a den this home is perfect for families looking for a comfortable and cozy living space. Upon entering, you'll be greeted by a bright and open floor plan that is ideal for hosting friends and family. Enjoy the study, perfect for an at home office! The kitchen is a chef's dream, boasting sleek countertops and state-of-the-art appliances that make cooking a breeze. The outdoor area is the perfect place for kids and pets to play safely while enjoying the fresh air. This home is a gem, and you don't want to miss the opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover all the possibilities this new home has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,270 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,284/yr (+$357/mo · 434.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable loss: −$8,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,007
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $287,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $291,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $297,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $297,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $310,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Listed $310,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $986 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.