16902 Lake Pleasant Ln #216 · Yorba Linda, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 99°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Unhealthy air days now
- 8 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 9 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +23.6/30.0
- DSCR +7.6/10.0
- 1% rule +6.1/10.0
- Schools +5.2/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +3.1/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$335,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Treat yourself by visiting this Lovely Home. A Great location and updated. Not only is this the Best Location, you feel as though you are in a Park setting on two sides. This Remodeled Home provides the Open Concept with a completely New Kitchen. Quartz Countertops, New wood self closing Cabinets. Two separate Ovens. Huge counter space including the open island. Plus it is open to the Family Room. Crown Molding and Base boards plus Wood Laminate Flooring through out. Carpet in the two Bedrooms. All new interior panel doors and two lovely Exterior entry Doors. The Sun room adds to the nice view of the Green Belt. This Home has it's own yard, large enough to enjoy your own landscape. The HVAC is New, also You will appreciate the Covered side by side Carport and large storage shed. Low Space Rent.
Key facts
- Quartz countertops
- New kitchen
- Huge counter space
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $335k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $335k).
- Recommended offer: $295k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.1% in Yorba Linda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in CA, #3,701 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
- Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified (suburban): math 48% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #78 of 517 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.11% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.55%
- Cash-on-cash
- 8.07%
- DSCR
- 1.36
- GRM
- 7.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $258,125
- List price
- $335,000
- Delta
- 29.78%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16901 Lake Pleasant Ln #231 | 0.04mi | 2/2.0 | 1,392 (0%) | 6mo | $190,000 | $136 | 93 |
| 16959 Lake Knoll Ln #109 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 | 1,368 (-2%) | 3mo | $215,000 | $157 | 92 |
| 16776 Lake Terrace Way #247 | 0.06mi | 2/2.0 | 1,440 (+3%) | 2mo | $335,000 | $233 | 90 |
| 3761 Lake Grove Dr #55 | 0.13mi | 2/2.0 | 1,368 (-2%) | 2mo | $170,000 | $124 | 89 |
| 3767 Lake Glen Dr #145 | 0.17mi | 2/2.0 | 1,368 (-2%) | 2mo | $220,000 | $161 | 88 |
| 3744 Lake Grove Dr #21 | 0.12mi | 2/2.0 | 1,344 (-3%) | 1mo | $205,000 | $153 | 88 |
| 3678 Lake Crest Dr #41 | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 | 1,344 (-3%) | 4mo | $355,000 | $264 | 87 |
| 16774 Lake Tree Dr #273 | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 | 1,440 (+3%) | 4mo | $344,000 | $239 | 87 |
| 3708 Lake Crest Dr | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 | 1,536 (+10%) | 6mo | $284,000 | $185 | 74 |
| 16742 Lake Park Way | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 1,200 (-14%) | 6mo | $125,000 | $104 | 65 |
| 16735 Lake Knoll Ln #195 | 0.12mi | 2/2.0 | 1,183 (-15%) | 7mo | $400,000 | $338 | 64 |
| 16958 Lake Ridge Way | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,200 (-14%) | 7mo | $180,000 | $150 | 63 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -4.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.82×
- Total profit
- $-16,827
- Equity at exit
- $49,950
- IRR
- 4.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.28×
- Total profit
- $26,144
- Equity at exit
- $28,965
Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 92886
- Rents YoY
- 2.3%
- Active inventory
- 117
- Price-to-rent
- 7.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,729 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,757
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$419 /mo · $5,025/yr
- Insurance
- −$140
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$783
- Net cashflow
- $631
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $83,750
- Closing costs
- $10,050
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 408 Sevilla Dr Brea, CA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1534 | $3,800 | $2.48 | 43d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 17564 Orange Dr Yorba Linda, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1015 | $2,750 | $2.71 | 43d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 17568 Orange Dr Yorba Linda, CA | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1050 | $2,690 | $2.56 | 12d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 1441 Prospect Ave Unit B Placentia, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $3,150 | $2.62 | 16d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 597 Hummingbird Dr Brea, CA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1377 | $4,200 | $3.05 | 15d | 1 | 1.38mi |
Listing history 23 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $335,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $335,000 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $335,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $335,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $335,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $335,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $335,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $335,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $335,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $335,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $335,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $335,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $335,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $335,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-04-19price $345,000 806-char remark
Show marketing remark (806 chars)
Treat yourself by visiting this Lovely Home. A Great location and updated. Not only is this the Best Location, you feel as though you are in a Park setting on two sides. This Remodeled Home provides the Open Concept with a completely New Kitchen. Quartz Countertops, New wood self closing Cabinets. Two separate Ovens. Huge counter space including the open island. Plus it is open to the Family Room. Crown Molding and Base boards plus Wood Laminate Flooring through out. Carpet in the two Bedrooms. All new interior panel doors and two lovely Exterior entry Doors. The Sun room adds to the nice view of the Green Belt. This Home has it's own yard, large enough to enjoy your own landscape. The HVAC is New, also You will appreciate the Covered side by side Carport and large storage shed. Low Space Rent.
-
2026-01-30$350,000 Active 806-char remark
Show marketing remark (806 chars)
Treat yourself by visiting this Lovely Home. A Great location and updated. Not only is this the Best Location, you feel as though you are in a Park setting on two sides. This Remodeled Home provides the Open Concept with a completely New Kitchen. Quartz Countertops, New wood self closing Cabinets. Two separate Ovens. Huge counter space including the open island. Plus it is open to the Family Room. Crown Molding and Base boards plus Wood Laminate Flooring through out. Carpet in the two Bedrooms. All new interior panel doors and two lovely Exterior entry Doors. The Sun room adds to the nice view of the Green Belt. This Home has it's own yard, large enough to enjoy your own landscape. The HVAC is New, also You will appreciate the Covered side by side Carport and large storage shed. Low Space Rent.
-
2023-10-25historical
-
2023-08-28price $310,000
-
2023-06-16$325,000 Active
-
2020-05-29status Pending Sale
-
2020-05-28historical
-
2020-05-22price $145,000
-
2020-04-01$160,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $44,744
- − Mortgage interest
- −$18,765
- − Property taxes
- −$5,025
- − Insurance
- −$1,675
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,579
- − Management
- −$3,579
- − Depreciation
- −$9,745
- Taxable income
- $2,374
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$570
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,996/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0630660
- Math proficiency
- 48% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 66% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $87,455
- Composite
- 52.1/100
- National rank
- #1622
- State rank
- #78 of 517 in CA
Livability — Yorba Linda
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #105
- US rank
- #3701
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Yorba Linda, CA
- County
- Orange County · 3,096,323 people
- City population
- 69,429
- Metro
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 49,704
- Household income
- $153,397
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 861.0
Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 3,477,456 people
- By 2030
- 3,613,117 · +3.9%
- By 2040
- 3,835,945 · +10.3%
- By 2050
- 3,968,736 · +14.1%
- By 2075
- 4,097,053 · +17.8%
- By 2100
- 3,903,633 · +12.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 51% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 22% · China, South Korea, Canada
- Languages at home
- 70% English-only · Chinese 8% Spanish 7% Korean 5%
Political lean MEDSL · Orange
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -880.71%
- Current HPI
- 375.5231
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.26%
- Metro
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
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| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
|
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Price history
+115.6% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-19 Price Changed $345,000 CRMLS
- 2026-01-30 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
- 2023-10-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2023-08-28 Price Changed $310,000 CRMLS
- 2023-06-16 Listed $325,000 CRMLS
- 2020-05-29 Pending — CRMLS
- 2020-05-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
- 2020-05-22 Price Changed $145,000 CRMLS
- 2020-04-01 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…