4528 40th Pl N · Birmingham, AL 35217

$86,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1920 6,534 sqft lot $67/sqft · 43% above area Est $60k · 43% over ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering a great opportunity for investors or owner-occupants. Renovated within the last few years, this property features approximately 1,284+/- square feet, hardwood flooring, a functional layout, and a fenced yard. Property is now vacant and ready for immediate occupancy. Previously rented for $950/month, presenting strong rental potential for investors. Conveniently located with off-street parking and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,840 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.83%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,214
• List price: $86,000
• Delta: 42.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4104 41st Ave N	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,345 (+5%)	1mo	$42,500	$32	67
4421 43rd St N	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-6%)	4mo	$42,000	$35	67
732 Fulton Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+3%)	4mo	$95,000	$72	66
4318 49th Ct N	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-1%)	11mo	$95,800	$76	64
4338 49th Ct	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,205 (-6%)	10mo	$87,500	$73	58
725 Fulton Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,110 (-14%)	5mo	$80,050	$72	57
4021 43rd Ave N	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (-10%)	10mo	$18,000	$16	57
3929 41st Ave N	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-13%)	2mo	$52,000	$46	54
4208 50th Ave N	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-14%)	7mo	$67,500	$61	53
4125 40th Ave N	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-11%)	4mo	$67,000	$59	50
1269 Elm Ave	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,308 (+2%)	10mo	$125,000	$96	49
4232 42nd St N	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-15%)	11mo	$126,000	$115	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $9,550
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $40,547
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35217

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $724

Max offer price $86,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $382	+0% $358	+5% $333	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $311	+0% $358	+5% $404	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $380	base $358	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4301 Greenwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,025	$0.90	3d	1	0.10mi
4329 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,353	$1.09	24d	1	0.12mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	44d	1	0.13mi
4329 Harmon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$950	$0.77	4d	1	0.13mi
4344 Pulaski St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,050	$0.83	44d	1	0.16mi
1316 Spring St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,195	$1.30	4d	1	0.22mi
619 Bell Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1550	$1,075	$0.69	44d	1	0.25mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	24d	1	0.28mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	44d	1	0.28mi
732 Fulton Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.37mi
4316 Gadsden St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1048	$1,100	$1.05	4d	1	0.37mi
1303 Main St Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,300	$0.91	44d	1	0.38mi
4418 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1710	$925	$0.54	24d	1	0.40mi
4208 50th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.40mi
4217 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	4d	1	0.41mi
4212 50th Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,595	$1.05	2d	1	0.41mi
4028 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1186	$950	$0.80	44d	1	0.45mi
5015 42nd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	44d	1	0.46mi
4220 40th Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	948	$1,200	$1.27	44d	1	0.52mi
4925 43rd Way N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,461	$1.19	2d	1	0.54mi
5025 43rd Pl N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1017	$1,300	$1.28	44d	1	0.56mi
4400 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1152	$850	$0.74	15d	1	0.58mi
4400 43rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1152	$850	$0.74	44d	1	0.58mi
4231 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1272	$850	$0.67	20d	1	0.60mi
1043 Jackson Blvd Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,095	$0.84	15d	1	0.62mi
4236 39th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	24d	1	0.64mi
1237 Elm Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1312	$1,150	$0.88	44d	1	0.67mi
3708 42nd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	44d	1	0.69mi
1045 Waverly St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,000	$0.99	44d	1	0.72mi
1120 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	44d	1	0.78mi
1116 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	887	$775	$0.87	44d	1	0.79mi
1108 Hall St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1680	$850	$0.51	44d	1	0.81mi
1249 Waverly St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,000	$0.79	44d	1	0.87mi
1434 Thomason Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1644	$1,100	$0.67	44d	1	0.91mi
1076 Green St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	17d	1	0.92mi
1439 Sloan Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$900	$0.96	44d	1	0.95mi
1401 Wharton Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1104	$950	$0.86	20d	1	0.98mi
3376 34th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.20mi
1225 Elizabeth Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1697	$1,100	$0.65	20d	1	1.21mi
1731 Mountain Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1160	$975	$0.84	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $86,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $86,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $86,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $86,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    listed $86,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering a great opportunity for investors or owner-occupants. Renovated within the last few years, this property features approximately 1,284+/- square feet, hardwood flooring, a functional layout, and a fenced yard. Property is now vacant and ready for immediate occupancy. Previously rented for $950/month, presenting strong rental potential for investors. Conveniently located with off-street parking and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining.

15. 2024-04-17
    historical $1,095
16. 2024-04-10
    listed $1,095
17. 2024-04-10
    historical $1,095
18. 2024-04-07
    historical $1,095
19. 2024-03-28
    listed $1,095
20. 2023-12-24
    price $1,095
21. 2023-11-04
    listed $1,185
22. 2023-07-31
    soldstatus $77,500 Sold 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors-Home renovated in the last 3 years with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Great buy. CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725/month with tenant in place and there is room for large rent increase. .. . renovated home next door too. .

23. 2023-07-31
    soldstatus $77,500

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors-Home renovated in the last 3 years with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Great buy. CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725/month with tenant in place and there is room for large rent increase. .. . renovated home next door too. .

24. 2023-06-30
    historical Contingent 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors-Home renovated in the last 3 years with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Great buy. CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725/month with tenant in place and there is room for large rent increase. .. . renovated home next door too. .

25. 2023-04-29
    listed $85,000 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors-Home renovated in the last 3 years with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Great buy. CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725/month with tenant in place and there is room for large rent increase. .. . renovated home next door too. .

26. 2021-08-31
    soldstatus $217,500
27. 2017-04-28
    soldstatus $174,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $3,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$742
• After-tax cash flow: $3,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,240
• Household income: $40,486
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.54%
• Current HPI: 117.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-50.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $86,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-04-17 Rental Removed $1,095 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,095 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,095 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-07 Rental Removed $1,095 RENT.
• 2024-03-28 Listed for Rent $1,095 RENT.
• 2023-12-24 Price Changed $1,095 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-04 Listed for Rent $1,185 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2023-07-31 Sold (MLS) $77,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-06-30 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-04-29 Listed $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $217,500 Public Records
• 2017-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.