9262 Grace Ridge Dr · Willis, TX 77318

$294,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,622 sqft · Land · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 3,960 sqft lot $113/sqft · 9% above area Est $270k · 9% over $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with quartz countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Resort style pool
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-45
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• LARGE COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($362/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $237,273 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,984
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: 9.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-52,916
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-70,815
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,265/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $294,990

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   price $294,990 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with quartz countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

2. 2026-04-13
   status Active 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with quartz countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

3. 2026-04-13
   price $299,331 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with quartz countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

4. 2026-04-01
   status Pending 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with quartz countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

5. 2026-03-04
   listed $288,971 Active 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with quartz countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,265 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,134/yr (+$344/mo · 326.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$1,265
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $1,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $294,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $299,331 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $288,971 HARMLS

Property tax history

-14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,265 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.