1319 15th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$73,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1885 1,645 sqft lot $75/sqft · 9% below area Est $80k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN READY INVESTMENT NOW ONLY $75,000!!—just add appliances!! Charming 3-bedroom ranch featuring a fully fenced yard, vinyl siding, and a 2-car blacktop driveway. Inside you'll find a spacious living room and a large eat-in kitchen with new countertops, new flooring, pantry storage, with gas or electric hookups for a stove. The home has been freshly painted throughout and includes a large walk-in closet, a walk-through bedroom, and a convenient mudroom entryway. The dry basement offers glass block windows, washer and dryer hookups, and an additional working toilet for added convenience. A large attic with pull-down stairs provides excellent storage space. Roof is approximately 15 years old and some newer windows. GREAT opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors.

Key facts

• Blacktop driveway
• Large eat-in kitchen
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• VINYL SIDING
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEW COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,300/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($505 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $73k implies a 564% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,620 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.58%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,362
• List price: $73,000
• Delta: -9.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1145 Whitney Ave	0.20mi	3/1.5	992 (+2%)	1mo	$105,100	$106	84
1133 Whitney Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,057 (+9%)	3mo	$76,100	$72	72
2217 Michigan Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-1%)	5mo	$40,000	$42	67
1362 Michigan Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (+5%)	12mo	$25,000	$25	65
2402 Whitney Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-2%)	13mo	$68,000	$72	55
1316 24th St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+8%)	10mo	$40,000	$38	54
628 21st St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,024 (+6%)	11mo	$128,000	$125	53
2479 Forest Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+4%)	10mo	$160,000	$159	51
2475 La Salle Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,024 (+6%)	6mo	$129,320	$126	49
2322 14th St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+7%)	14mo	$55,000	$53	49
1705 Ferry Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+12%)	13mo	$65,000	$60	36
2486 Willow Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,108 (+14%)	8mo	$136,500	$123	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $80,894
• Equity at exit: $65,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 12.17×
• Total profit: $228,321
• Equity at exit: $141,823

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $912/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $619

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	23d	1	0.30mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	21d	1	0.38mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	0.52mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	1d	1	0.58mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	1d	1	0.58mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	3d	1	0.67mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	17d	1	0.74mi
616 7th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	23d	1	0.75mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.78mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	43d	1	0.83mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	14d	1	0.92mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	1d	1	0.97mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.97mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.03mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	10d	1	1.15mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	1.37mi
3626 Dudley Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $73,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $75,000 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY INVESTMENT NOW ONLY $75,000!!—just add appliances!! Charming 3-bedroom ranch featuring a fully fenced yard, vinyl siding, and a 2-car blacktop driveway. Inside you'll find a spacious living room and a large eat-in kitchen with new countertops, new flooring, pantry storage, with gas or electric hookups for a stove. The home has been freshly painted throughout and includes a large walk-in closet, a walk-through bedroom, and a convenient mudroom entryway. The dry basement offers glass block windows, washer and dryer hookups, and an additional working toilet for added convenience. A large attic with pull-down stairs provides excellent storage space. Roof is approximately 15 years old and some newer windows. GREAT opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors.

17. 2026-04-15
    listed $85,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY INVESTMENT NOW ONLY $75,000!!—just add appliances!! Charming 3-bedroom ranch featuring a fully fenced yard, vinyl siding, and a 2-car blacktop driveway. Inside you'll find a spacious living room and a large eat-in kitchen with new countertops, new flooring, pantry storage, with gas or electric hookups for a stove. The home has been freshly painted throughout and includes a large walk-in closet, a walk-through bedroom, and a convenient mudroom entryway. The dry basement offers glass block windows, washer and dryer hookups, and an additional working toilet for added convenience. A large attic with pull-down stairs provides excellent storage space. Roof is approximately 15 years old and some newer windows. GREAT opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors.

18. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$912
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $5,615
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $5,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+581.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $912 · +42.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.