6788 E Channel Dr · Hernando, FL 34442

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,719 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1992 1.29 ac lot Est $165k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Serenity truly defines this property. Tucked away on 1.29 peaceful acres, this home gives you the country escape you’ve been craving. If you’re ready to leave the city noise behind, this is your spot. Picture yourself unwinding on a huge front porch, surrounded by nature, quiet evenings, and stunning sunsets. Inside, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a cozy gas fireplace for those chilly nights. Out back, a spacious porch overlooks a river canal—currently low due to drought, but still offering that tranquil, private setting everyone wants. To me, this is a little slice of heaven. Come see it and decide for yourself.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Huge front porch
• 1.29 acres

Tags

• 1.29 ACRES
• HUGE FRONT PORCH
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS PORCH
• OVERLOOKS RIVER CANAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Driveway; Boat parking; RV access/parking; Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Cleared lot; Irregular lot shape; Waterfront property with canal access and canal front; Private maintained road; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-818/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (7.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $170k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,852 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.04%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,024
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7096 N Spring Run Ter	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-5%)	21mo	$95,500	$58	64
6589 E Channel Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-9%)	24mo	$150,000	$96	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-31,587
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-31,927
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,487/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $157,852

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $169,900 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-04-26
   listed $169,900 Active
8. 2017-06-30
   soldstatus $100,000
9. 2015-01-27
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,487
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$822
• After-tax cash flow: $4/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+126.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $169,900 RACC
• 2017-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,487 · +256.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.