202 Cavin St · Jasper, TX 75951

$78,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

0.27 ac lot $62/sqft · 18% below area Est $95k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable 3BR/1BA home in the heart of Jasper, TX! Conveniently located within walking distance to downtown shops, dining, city parks, and local events. This cozy home features durable vinyl flooring throughout, offering easy maintenance and an updated feel. Nestled on a spacious lot with a large, private backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or pets. Enjoy mature trees that provide shade and a peaceful setting while still being close to everything Jasper has to offer. Ideal for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for in-town convenience at an affordable price!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Mature trees
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO DOWNTOWN
• LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Rayburn Realty

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Located in Jasper subdivision: NONE
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Tile and vinyl flooring; Window air conditioning unit(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.01%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -17.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 W Water St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+3%)	0mo	$95,000	$74	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $18,709
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $56,753
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,453/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $712

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $536	-5% $514	+0% $492	+5% $470	+10% $447
Rent	-10% $386	-5% $439	+0% $492	+5% $544	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $531	-0.5pp $511	base $492	+0.5pp $471	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 Cavin St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1418	$1,300	$0.92	19d	1	0.04mi
469 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	14d	1	0.68mi
509 N Peachtree St Jasper, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,000	$1.23	14d	1	0.69mi
816 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1270	$1,095	$0.86	14d	1	0.82mi
801 W Gibson St Unit 108 Jasper, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	19d	1	1.07mi
801 W Gibson St Unit 208 Jasper, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$900	$1.00	19d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $78,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $78,000 Active 606-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,453
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,281
• − Management: −$1,281
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $4,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $4,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $78,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,453 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.