1837 Bailey St · San Angelo, TX 76901

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1947 5,000 sqft lot Est $154k · 32% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bed 2 bath Estate has a bonus room that could act as a 3rd bedroom, office or nursery. This home has an updated HVAC unit, semi updated bathrooms, carport and detached garage. Although this home is priced as an investment property that needs some TLC it actually has quite a lot going for it and would make a great buy for an investor or home owner. Check out the pictures and Facebook video and come take advantage of this investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Updated hvac unit
• Bonus room
• Carport

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• UPDATED HVAC UNIT
• SEMI UPDATED BATHROOMS
• CARPORT
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgill El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 306 students, 79% FRL); Lone Star Middle (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 903 students, 63% FRL); Central H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 3,065 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.07%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2005 Bailey St	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	4mo	$129,000	$117	85
2105 Coleman St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,105 (+4%)	2mo	$160,000	$145	71
1024 N Bishop St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,070 (+1%)	1mo	$135,000	$126	68
2019 Freeland Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-5%)	5mo	$127,500	$126	68
1825 N St St	0.10mi	2/1.0	940 (-12%)	5mo	$100,000	$106	67
2403 Freeland Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	2mo	$179,900	$161	64
206 N Van Buren St	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-5%)	1mo	$167,500	$166	63
1906 Juanita Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0	964 (-9%)	3mo	$165,000	$171	60
215 Westland St	0.55mi	2/1.0	971 (-9%)	1mo	$124,900	$129	55
2319 North St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,180 (+11%)	1mo	$129,500	$110	53
2410 Lindell Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0	960 (-10%)	2mo	$157,000	$164	51
2414 Chestnut St	0.60mi	2/1.0	910 (-14%)	4mo	$142,000	$156	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $83,367
• Equity at exit: $94,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.09×
• Total profit: $237,792
• Equity at exit: $203,992

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,427/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,008

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $375	+0% $345	+5% $315	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $288	+0% $345	+5% $402	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $372	base $345	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1835 Willow St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.16mi
711 N Monroe St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1345	$1,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.23mi
2102 Webster St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1233	$1,750	$1.42	45d	1	0.31mi
121 N Van Buren St Unit A San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	715	$1,095	$1.53	22d	1	0.50mi
705 Childress St San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	872	$1,400	$1.61	45d	1	0.60mi
1929 Raney St San Angelo, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$1,000	$1.31	22d	4	0.65mi
902 Shiloh St Unit RE-908-C San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.5	925	$1,175	$1.27	45d	1	0.71mi
902 Shiloh St Unit RE-908-16 San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,125	$1.29	45d	1	0.71mi
902 Shiloh St Unit RE-908-20 San Angelo, TX	1.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	45d	1	0.71mi
1905 Meadowbrook Dr San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,400	$1.18	45d	1	0.72mi
2102 Raney St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,295	$1.25	22d	1	0.73mi
2629 Forest Park Ave San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,895	$1.42	45d	1	0.74mi
2430 Rio Grande St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.74mi
2630 Waco St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,600	$1.56	22d	1	0.76mi
212 S Fillmore St Unit B San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	45d	1	0.84mi
2804 Abilene St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,550	$1.19	45d	1	0.87mi
1717 Greenwood St San Angelo, TX	1.0	1.0	754	$625	$0.83	22d	1	0.92mi
810 W 19th St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,249	$1.15	22d	1	0.96mi
706 W 16th St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,590	$1.22	22d	1	0.97mi
1405 Hassell St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,950	$1.83	45d	1	0.98mi
2065 Live Oak St San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	45d	1	1.00mi
540 W 16th St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,364	$1.25	45d	1	1.11mi
2802 Field St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	1.12mi
1210 Guthrie St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,400	$1.21	22d	1	1.12mi
1714 Cordell Dr San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,850	$1.31	45d	1	1.25mi
1725 West Avenue M Unit M San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	1202	$1,350	$1.12	22d	1	1.36mi
1818 S Lincoln St San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	555	$1,199	$2.16	22d	19	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   status Active
3. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-17
   price $105,000
5. 2026-02-17
   price $124,900
6. 2026-02-06
   listed $129,500 Active
7. 2022-01-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,427 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,427 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,427
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$642
• After-tax cash flow: $3,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Angelo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838700
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,501
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7427
• State rank: #627 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Angelo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #5030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Angelo, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• City population: 81,357
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2026-03-24 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $105,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $124,900 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-06 Listed $129,500 SAAR TX
• 2022-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,427 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.