403 Mockingbird Ln · Chico, TX 76431

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1960 0.46 ac lot $41/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL-CASH ONLY This 1960 3 bd, 2 bath pier and beam ranch house is 2188 square feet of blank canvas for the DIYer or the Investor looking for a project. Priced well below appraised value, the Sellers have priced it to move quickly. Please see Disclosures in Transaction Desk and submit those along with any written offers. All Reasonable Offers will be considered.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 109 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.7% in Chico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#508 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Chico ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #424 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.11%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,615
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -61.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Mockingbird Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,864 (-15%)	4mo	$218,440	$117	70
500 E Sherman St	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,966 (-10%)	12mo	$273,999	$139	60
204 W Jacksboro St	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,035 (-7%)	14mo	$175,000	$86	57
302 W Decatur St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,940 (-11%)	3mo	$195,000	$101	55
401 N Davis St	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,210 (+1%)	22mo	$340,000	$154	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $17,791
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $57,544
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76431

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,429/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $532	+0% $506	+5% $481	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $441	+0% $506	+5% $571	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $529	base $506	+0.5pp $483	+1.0pp $459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $90,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $99,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL-CASH ONLY This 1960 3 bd, 2 bath pier and beam ranch house is 2188 square feet of blank canvas for the DIYer or the Investor looking for a project. Priced well below appraised value, the Sellers have priced it to move quickly. Please see Disclosures in Transaction Desk and submit those along with any written offers. All Reasonable Offers will be considered.

16. 2026-04-14
    price $120,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL-CASH ONLY This 1960 3 bd, 2 bath pier and beam ranch house is 2188 square feet of blank canvas for the DIYer or the Investor looking for a project. Priced well below appraised value, the Sellers have priced it to move quickly. Please see Disclosures in Transaction Desk and submit those along with any written offers. All Reasonable Offers will be considered.

17. 2026-03-30
    price $140,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL-CASH ONLY This 1960 3 bd, 2 bath pier and beam ranch house is 2188 square feet of blank canvas for the DIYer or the Investor looking for a project. Priced well below appraised value, the Sellers have priced it to move quickly. Please see Disclosures in Transaction Desk and submit those along with any written offers. All Reasonable Offers will be considered.

18. 2026-03-17
    price $150,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL-CASH ONLY This 1960 3 bd, 2 bath pier and beam ranch house is 2188 square feet of blank canvas for the DIYer or the Investor looking for a project. Priced well below appraised value, the Sellers have priced it to move quickly. Please see Disclosures in Transaction Desk and submit those along with any written offers. All Reasonable Offers will be considered.

19. 2026-03-01
    listed $165,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL-CASH ONLY This 1960 3 bd, 2 bath pier and beam ranch house is 2188 square feet of blank canvas for the DIYer or the Investor looking for a project. Priced well below appraised value, the Sellers have priced it to move quickly. Please see Disclosures in Transaction Desk and submit those along with any written offers. All Reasonable Offers will be considered.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,429 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,429 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$3,429
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,068
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,216
• After-tax cash flow: $4,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 33.94/100
• National rank: #5335
• State rank: #424 of 826 in TX

Livability — Chico

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #10078

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chico, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,480

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.62%
• Current HPI: 222.5575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $165,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,429 · +44.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.