9018 Lonesome Oak Dr · Temple, TX 76502

$216,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2016 5,749 sqft lot $126/sqft · 15% below area Est $253k · 15% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out 9018 Lonesome Oak Dr, a residence designed for practical daily use and easy upkeep. The kitchen features an accent backsplash, while the primary bathroom provides double sinks for practical utility. A patio extends to a fully fenced in backyard, providing an enclosed outdoor area for daily use. This property is a must-see for seeking a comfortable and stylish home.

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Accent backsplash
• 5,749 sq ft lot

Tags

• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• DOUBLE SINKS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, crime D+, employment D+.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joe M Pirtle El (math 51% / reading 49%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 606 students, 42% FRL); Lake Belton Middle (math 47% / reading 52%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 826 students, 30% FRL); Belton H S (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,941 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1126 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,187 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,069
• List price: $216,000
• Delta: -14.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8713 Oakbend Cv	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,738 (+1%)	1mo	$300,000	$173	86
8811 Key Stone	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (-1%)	2mo	$269,900	$158	84
1032 Sagebrush Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+9%)	6mo	$240,000	$128	71
1070 Lonesome Oak Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,938 (+13%)	6mo	$260,000	$134	69
1212 Redstone Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-10%)	5mo	$230,000	$149	68
911 Stonebrook Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+4%)	18mo	$279,900	$157	64
1116 Woodhollow Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-13%)	2mo	$235,000	$158	60
8516 Westway Cv	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-14%)	1mo	$275,000	$187	58
9006 Single Bend Trl	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,967 (+14%)	8mo	$205,000	$104	52
9024 Single Bend Trl	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,965 (+14%)	17mo	$274,000	$139	44
7915 Autumnwood Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,958 (+14%)	1mo	$370,000	$189	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-54,751
• Equity at exit: $32,206

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-86,977
• Equity at exit: $18,676

Cash invested: $60,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1126
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax from tax record: −$475 /mo · $5,695/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $176,187

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-103	-5% $-164	+0% $-225	+5% $-287	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-300	+0% $-225	+5% $-150	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-117	-0.5pp $-170	base $-225	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,000
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
721 Green Pasture Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	2056	$1,995	$0.97	45d	1	0.15mi
1136 Tumbleweed Trl Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	2079	$1,850	$0.89	45d	1	0.18mi
716 Moon Shadow Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	2153	$1,900	$0.88	45d	1	0.20mi
9110 Winding Ct Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,495	$1.14	25d	1	0.24mi
9044 Single Bend Trl Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1998	$1,945	$0.97	15d	1	0.26mi
460 S Cedar Rd Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$1,679	$1.73	15d	6	0.37mi
821 Woodhollow Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,000	$1.30	45d	1	0.38mi
1502 Cedar Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,595	$1.15	15d	1	0.41mi
8332 Saddle Brook Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	45d	1	0.56mi
617 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,695	$1.22	45d	1	0.64mi
619 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.5	1538	$1,695	$1.10	45d	1	0.64mi
812 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,495	$1.08	45d	1	0.64mi
746 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,695	$1.22	45d	1	0.64mi
742 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.5	1538	$1,695	$1.10	45d	1	0.64mi
1722 Bent Oak Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,650	$1.28	45d	1	0.65mi
8210 Sunset Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,650	$1.15	23d	1	0.65mi
707 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,495	$1.08	45d	1	0.66mi
709 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.5	1538	$1,695	$1.10	45d	1	0.66mi
719 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.5	1585	$1,995	$1.26	45d	1	0.66mi
729 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,695	$1.22	45d	1	0.67mi
739 Meiomi Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,495	$1.08	45d	1	0.67mi
602 Thistle Brook Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	25d	1	0.74mi
515 Big Oak Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	45d	1	0.75mi
518 Thistle Brook Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	25d	1	0.76mi
510 Thistle Brook Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	25d	1	0.77mi
525 Thistle Brook Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	25d	1	0.78mi
604 Hayfield Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	25d	1	0.79mi
513 Thistle Brook Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	25d	1	0.79mi
8102 Grand Prairie Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	45d	1	0.79mi
607 Hayfield Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	25d	1	0.81mi
228 Big Timber Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1919	$1,895	$0.99	25d	1	0.82mi
523 Hayfield Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	45d	1	0.82mi
610 Rock Meadow Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	15d	1	0.83mi
816 Copper Ridge Loop Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,145	$0.97	15d	1	0.84mi
526 Rock Meadow Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	45d	1	0.84mi
716 Copper Ridge Loop Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$2,100	$1.23	25d	1	0.85mi
613 Rock Meadow Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,095	$1.08	45d	1	0.85mi
620 Copper Ridge Loop Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$2,195	$1.28	45d	1	0.88mi
419 Big Timber Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$1,995	$1.13	45d	1	0.94mi
510 Sanders Farm Rd Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1940	$2,095	$1.08	15d	6	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $216,000 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $216,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $216,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $216,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $216,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-05-07
   price $227,000 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Check out 9018 Lonesome Oak Dr, a residence designed for practical daily use and easy upkeep. The kitchen features an accent backsplash, while the primary bathroom provides double sinks for practical utility. A patio extends to a fully fenced in backyard, providing an enclosed outdoor area for daily use. This property is a must-see for seeking a comfortable and stylish home.

7. 2026-04-23
   price $232,000 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Check out 9018 Lonesome Oak Dr, a residence designed for practical daily use and easy upkeep. The kitchen features an accent backsplash, while the primary bathroom provides double sinks for practical utility. A patio extends to a fully fenced in backyard, providing an enclosed outdoor area for daily use. This property is a must-see for seeking a comfortable and stylish home.

8. 2026-04-06
   listed $235,000 Active 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Check out 9018 Lonesome Oak Dr, a residence designed for practical daily use and easy upkeep. The kitchen features an accent backsplash, while the primary bathroom provides double sinks for practical utility. A patio extends to a fully fenced in backyard, providing an enclosed outdoor area for daily use. This property is a must-see for seeking a comfortable and stylish home.

9. 2026-04-01
   soldstatus
10. 2025-10-09
    soldstatus
11. 2025-09-22
    historical
12. 2025-09-12
    price $249,900
13. 2025-08-26
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,695 · $475/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,695 · $475/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$5,695
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,284
• Taxable loss: −$6,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1890.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $227,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $232,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $235,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $249,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $260,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,695 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.