18548 Buckskin Dr · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$319,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Land · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 2,200 sqft lot $257/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

Key facts

• Double-bowl vanity
• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE-BOWL VANITY
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,481; Total monthly HOA/fees shown: $257
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Access Management; Monthly HOA fee $257 (includes grounds maintenance); Association approval required; Community amenities: fitness center, pool, tennis courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (10 x 20)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water not listed; Public and underground utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Under construction (projected completion May 22, 2026); Two levels; North-facing entry
• Construction: Block, stone and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by D.R. Horton (Builder model: PEARSON)
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Pond view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Microwave; Disposal; Electric water heater; Range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $266,429 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-65,170
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-94,131
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,579/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$257
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,778

Max offer price $303,179

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $1	+0% $-90	+5% $-180	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-195	+0% $-90	+5% $16	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $-8	base $-90	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18524 Buckskin Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	25d	1	0.01mi
2617 Fetlock Run Unit 2617 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,350	$1.61	18d	1	0.17mi
18143 Wheathouse Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,300	$1.81	25d	1	0.31mi
17624 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,950	$1.65	25d	1	0.66mi
17649 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,749	$1.64	25d	1	0.67mi
17777 Crescent Moon Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	23d	1	0.73mi
3222 Bitterroot Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$3,000	$1.80	25d	1	0.81mi
16929 Yard Spring Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,700	$1.80	5d	1	1.13mi
17903 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1672	$2,800	$1.67	25d	1	1.25mi
17929 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,000	$2.09	5d	1	1.28mi
17918 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1452	$3,000	$2.07	25d	1	1.29mi
3109 Novara Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$2,500	$1.82	13d	1	1.30mi
16610 San Nicola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1268	$1,975	$1.56	25d	1	1.39mi
16559 San Nicola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1185	$1,990	$1.68	25d	1	1.41mi
16555 San Nicola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1180	$2,100	$1.78	13d	1	1.42mi
16527 San Nicola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$2,200	$1.83	25d	1	1.43mi
16515 San Nicola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1187	$1,975	$1.66	25d	1	1.44mi
16530 San Nicola Pl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1185	$1,875	$1.58	21d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $257 · $3,084/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $319,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $319,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $322,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $322,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $322,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $322,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $324,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $327,000 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

18. 2026-05-20
    price $327,000
19. 2026-05-18
    price $333,550

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

20. 2026-05-18
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

21. 2026-05-18
    status Active 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

22. 2026-05-18
    price $333,550 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

23. 2026-02-23
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

24. 2026-02-23
    historical 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

25. 2026-02-07
    listed $342,990 Active 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    This townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage, all in a spacious 1,464 sq. ft. area. As you enter the home, you will find a foyer as well as a powder room. Beyond that is the open-concept kitchen and living area, which includes countertop seating and ample space for a dining table. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom featuring a double-bowl vanity. You'll also find two additional bedrooms available, each with ample closet space. The hallway conveniently houses another full bathroom and an upstairs laundry room. Discover why the Pearson Townhome will be the perfect fit for your next move!

26. 2026-02-06
    listed $342,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,579 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,069/yr (+$89/mo · 67.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$1,579
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,558
• − Management: −$2,558
• − HOA: −$3,084
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$6,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $327,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $327,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $333,550 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $333,550 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Listed $342,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Listed $342,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid