2911 Pecan Ave · Leesburg, FL 34748

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1993 1,272 sqft lot Est $187k · 14% under $245/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom. two and a half bath townhome. Whirlpool appliances

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include association-owned recreation and gated access
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $245; Total annual fees $2,940; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $245); Association requires approval; Association management by Jason Sackmann - Sentry Management; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, recreation facilities, maintenance, deed restrictions, community mailbox, and wheelchair access; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community; Lobby key required
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; BB/High-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two stories; Faces east; R-2 zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Membrane and shake roof; Slab foundation; Built with a total building area of 1,596 square feet
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Sliding doors; Storage; Board and wood fencing; In-ground gunite pool with child safety fence and outside bath access; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Sliding doors; Interior storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-390/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (3.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 9597% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $160k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 Willow Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (+10%)	9mo	$205,000	$145	62
1105 Apple Ter	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (+10%)	10mo	$185,000	$130	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-32,674
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-49,167
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,264/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,695

Max offer price $154,265

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $13	+0% $-32	+5% $-78	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-98	+0% $-32	+5% $33	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $8	base $-32	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2920 Pecan Ave Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1288	$1,700	$1.32	24d	1	0.03mi
2940 Peach St Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1288	$1,750	$1.36	18d	1	0.07mi
1004 Royal Oak Blvd Unit 1004 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1244	$1,550	$1.25	4d	1	0.08mi
3029 Walnut Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,799	$0.97	5d	1	0.24mi
3029 Walnut Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,799	$0.97	3d	1	0.24mi
3019 Walnut Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,799	$0.97	3d	1	0.25mi
2602 Houston Pl Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	5d	1	0.58mi
513 Old Colony Rd Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,699	$1.42	5d	1	0.69mi
502 Old Colony Rd Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,299	$0.89	24d	1	0.74mi
822 S Lone Oak Dr Unit B Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	24d	1	0.84mi
1317 Cambridge Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	24d	1	1.21mi
1604 Woodlyn Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,500	$1.38	24d	1	1.26mi
210 N Lone Oak Dr Unit 1 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	15d	1	1.36mi
200 S Moss St Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	968	$1,500	$1.55	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $160,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $1,650
16. 2026-05-20
    historical $1,650
17. 2026-05-17
    listed $1,650
18. 2026-02-20
    price $175,000
19. 2026-01-01
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 2021-11-01
    soldstatus $100,000
21. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $100,000 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    Two bedroom. two and a half bath townhome. Whirlpool appliances

22. 2021-10-29
    listed $100,000 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    Two bedroom. two and a half bath townhome. Whirlpool appliances

23. 2006-08-10
    soldstatus $135,500
24. 2006-08-08
    soldstatus $135,500 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    #272 LOVELY , SPOTLESS TOWNHOUSE WITH VIEW OF OPEN FIELD FROM BALCONY. LIKE NEW. ALL WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES INCLUDING SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER.

25. 2006-05-25
    listed $135,900 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    #272 LOVELY , SPOTLESS TOWNHOUSE WITH VIEW OF OPEN FIELD FROM BALCONY. LIKE NEW. ALL WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES INCLUDING SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER.

26. 2006-02-09
    soldstatus $128,000
27. 2006-02-08
    soldstatus $128,000
28. 2005-12-13
    listed $129,000
29. 1999-02-03
    soldstatus $61,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,264 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,264 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,264
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leesburg, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Rental Removed $1,650 Avail
• 2026-05-17 Listed for Rent $1,650 Avail
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-29 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-29 Sold (MLS) $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $135,500 Public Records
• 2006-08-08 Sold (MLS) $135,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-25 Listed $135,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-08 Sold (MLS) $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-13 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,264 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.