806 Orian Dr · Mesquite, TX 75181

$300,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 5,184 sqft lot Est $340k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and full of value! This Creek Crossing home offers over 2100 square feet with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths upstairs, a half bath downstairs, and a versatile floorplan designed for comfortable everyday living. Recent updates include fresh interior and exterior paint, new carpet, a recently replaced roof, and HVAC, providing peace of mind for the next owner. The inviting living area is anchored by a cozy fireplace, while the flexible layout offers space for a home office, playroom, or additional gathering area. Conveniently located near schools, shopping and commuter routes, this well-maintained home presents an excellent opportunity in one of Mesquite's established neighborhoods.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Well maintained home
• Flexible layout

Tags

• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• NEW CARPET
• COZY FIREPLACE
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOODS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered/garage parking spaces; Garage roughly 20' x 20'
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story home; Preowned (built in 1998)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Interior lot; Landscaped yard; Curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom located on second level with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Two living areas; Two dining areas; Total of 8 rooms; One fireplace in living room; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 582 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 590 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,388 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.61%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,710
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 Orian Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,010 (-5%)	3mo	$290,000	$144	83
822 Orian Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,296 (+9%)	5mo	$296,000	$129	73
1227 Rivercrest Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,090 (-1%)	3mo	$335,000	$160	71
813 Creek Valley Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,175 (+3%)	0mo	$369,995	$170	66
2410 Charter Creek Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,157 (+2%)	6mo	$330,000	$153	62
502 Elderwood Loop	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,354 (+12%)	3mo	$320,000	$136	61
2919 Beau Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,031 (-4%)	7mo	$350,000	$172	58
1215 Rivercrest Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (-6%)	6mo	$320,000	$161	57
2517 Hackberry Crk	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,189 (+4%)	5mo	$369,900	$169	56
2403 Brookchase Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,332 (+10%)	4mo	$335,000	$144	52
1805 Sandcastle Trl	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,810 (-14%)	2mo	$299,000	$165	48
2728 Preston Crk	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,843 (-13%)	6mo	$305,000	$165	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-71,965
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-111,468
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$610 /mo · $7,314/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,921

Max offer price $255,388

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2312 Gerber Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2285	$2,495	$1.09	1d	1	0.14mi
2433 Baretta Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,091	$1.49	22d	1	0.18mi
928 Winchester Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,650	$1.86	1d	1	0.26mi
2208 Browning Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,955	$1.39	44d	1	0.27mi
522 Binkley Ct Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2318	$2,999	$1.29	44d	1	0.29mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	22d	1	0.42mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	44d	1	0.42mi
505 Picketts Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,950	$1.39	44d	1	0.50mi
612 Coolwood Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,746	$1.22	44d	1	0.72mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	44d	1	0.77mi
450 Appomattox Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1567	$1,930	$1.23	44d	1	0.79mi
1729 Hazer Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	21d	1	0.93mi
1013 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,399	$1.27	3d	1	0.97mi
1424 Savannah St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,959	$1.34	17d	1	0.99mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	18d	1	1.00mi
2812 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,800	$1.52	1d	1	1.00mi
1229 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,900	$1.46	1d	1	1.08mi
1229 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1993	$3,075	$1.54	13d	1	1.08mi
1233 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1749	$2,289	$1.31	8d	1	1.08mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	44d	1	1.11mi
1400 Paintbrush St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,400	$1.34	44d	1	1.19mi
628 Windsong Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2248	$2,600	$1.16	18d	1	1.23mi
1521 Cool Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,295	$1.19	24d	1	1.39mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	24d	1	1.40mi
1411 Springwood Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,081	$1.11	44d	1	1.44mi
1416 Hackamore St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	2d	1	1.46mi
1615 Ariel Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2002	$3,200	$1.60	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 692-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $300,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,314 · $610/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,314 · $610/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$7,314
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,949
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $300,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,314 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.