Is 201 Tugboat Annie Way in Jarrell, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-382/mo modeled cash flow at a $214,950 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 201 Tugboat Annie Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,760/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 34.93

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +12.6/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
Schools +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$214,950

201 Tugboat Annie Way · Jarrell, TX 76537

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 5,201 sqft lot 2-car garage $151/sqft · 11% below area Est $243k · 11% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Assumable $1,767/month total payment. Less cash to close than first/last/security on most apartments. This 2024-built Lennar home in Rancho Del Cielo offers something almost no other listing in the Austin metro can: an assumable VA loan that ANYONE can take over, you do NOT need to be a veteran. Total monthly payment is $1,767.76 PITI, locked at the seller's original rate. Estimated cash to assume: ~$13,000. Compare that to renting a 3BR in Round Rock or Pflugerville right now (~$2,200-$2,500/month). This payment gets you ownership, equity, and a backyard for less than rent. Inside, 1,421 sq ft of single-story, open-concept living.

Key facts

Community pool
New shower door
5,201 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (31.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (18.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $147k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $147,435 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 4.16%
Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $242,643
List price: $214,950
Delta: -11.41%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Cattle Queen Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-1%)	0mo	$229,990	$163	84
112 Hasty Heart Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+6%)	0mo	$219,990	$147	81
513 Texas Angel Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-1%)	0mo	$239,990	$170	79
308 Rancho Del Cielo Loop	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+4%)	1mo	$208,749	$141	78
473 Jones Beach Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+4%)	1mo	$207,249	$140	72
304 Rancho Del Cielo Loop	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+11%)	0mo	$235,990	$150	68
512 Texas Angel Way	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-10%)	1mo	$195,000	$153	61
453 Jones Beach Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+11%)	0mo	$213,999	$136	61
437 Jones Beach Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+11%)	2mo	$214,999	$137	59
440 Jones Beach Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+11%)	1mo	$218,999	$139	58
429 Jones Beach Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+11%)	1mo	$233,990	$149	58
604 Rancho Del Cielo Loop	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+11%)	2mo	$231,999	$147	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.7%
Equity multiple: -0.07×
Total profit: $-64,127
Equity at exit: $32,050

10-year hold

IRR: -70.7%
Equity multiple: -0.77×
Total profit: $-106,288
Equity at exit: $18,585

Cash invested: $60,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 51 active · 33 under contract
Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $215,499 ($143/sqft)
Median days on market: 43 d
This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +19.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

Home prices YoY: -14.4%
Rents YoY: -1.7%
Active inventory: 915
Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,760 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,466/yr
Insurance: −$90
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,243

Max offer price $147,435

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-261	-5% $-321	+0% $-382	+5% $-443	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-521	-5% $-452	+0% $-382	+5% $-313	+10% $-243
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-328	base $-382	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $53,738
Closing costs: $6,448
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	47d	1	0.13mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	41d	1	0.13mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	64d	1	0.13mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	53d	1	0.23mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	93d	1	0.23mi
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	17d	1	0.23mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	73d	1	0.25mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	69d	1	0.29mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	93d	1	0.30mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	52d	1	0.47mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	93d	1	0.47mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	93d	1	0.48mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,750	$1.44	34d	1	0.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Part of Rancho Del Cielo HOAHOA fee of $100 per monthHOA fee includes common area maintenance and internetCommunity amenities: clubhouse, pool, dog park, playground, trails/paths, barbecue and common grounds, community mailbox, pet amenities, curbs, internet access

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with garage door openerTwo covered garage spaces (2-car garage)Driveway parking (total parking for 4 vehicles)Garage faces front
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Electricity connectedWater connected via municipal utility districtSewer connected via municipal utility districtUnderground utilities
Home design: Single-story homeNorthwest facingResale property
Construction: Built by LennarHardiPlank-type exteriorBlown-in insulationShingle roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Private yardExterior lightingBack yardFront yardLocated on a cul-de-sacAutomatic in-ground sprinklers with rain sensor (front, rear, side)

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeFree-standing electric ovenDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorPantry
Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central airCeiling fans
Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)In-law floorplanMain level primary bedroomNo interior stepsOpen floorplanPantryHigh speed internetDouble pane windows
Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry room located in hall (inside)

HOA detail $100/mo · $1,200/yr

Likely covers: security

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $214,950 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $214,950 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $214,950 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $214,950 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $214,950 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $214,950 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $214,950 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $214,950 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $214,950 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $214,950 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $214,950 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $214,950 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-22

pricedays on market $214,950 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $219,950 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $219,950 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $219,950 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $219,950 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $219,950 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $219,950 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $219,950 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $219,950 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $219,950 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $219,950 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $219,950 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $219,950 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $219,950 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $219,950 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $219,950 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $219,950 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $219,950 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $219,950 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $219,950 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $219,950 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $219,950 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $219,950 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $219,950 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $219,950 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $219,950 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $219,950 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $219,950 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $219,950 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $219,950 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-15

pricedays on market $219,950 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $224,950 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $224,950 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $224,950 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $224,950 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $224,950 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $224,950 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $224,950 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $5,466 · $455/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $5,466 · $455/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,115
− Mortgage interest: −$12,041
− Property taxes: −$5,466
− Insurance: −$1,075
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
− Management: −$1,689
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$6,253
Taxable loss: −$8,297

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,991
After-tax cash flow: $-2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,105–$21,315 screening

This single-story home in Rancho Del Cielo is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It's a low-maintenance property with potential for value increases through minor updates and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping and plant maintenance — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can increase the home's appeal and value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Jarrell ISD
NCES district ID: 4824600
Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $57,132
Composite: 21.47/100
National rank: #8335
State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

Score: 71/100
State rank: #313
US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
City population: 16,272
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 16,272
Household income: $98,199
Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 699,027 people
By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
Current HPI: 184.8935
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-06-14 Price Changed $219,950 Unlock MLS
2026-05-29 Price Changed $224,950 Unlock MLS
2026-04-17 Listed $229,950 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+108.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,466 · +108.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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