CashFlowRE
Sign in Sign up
201 Tugboat Annie Way
D- Composite 38.67
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.8/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.6/5.0
  • Schools +2.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.1/5.0
  • DSCR +1.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$199,950

201 Tugboat Annie Way · Jarrell, TX 76537
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market
Built 2024 Good condition 5,201 sqft lot 2-car garage $141/sqft · 18% below area Est $242k · 17% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Short sale, subject to third party lender approval. All terms, price, and closing timeline require written approval from the seller's lender and are not binding until that approval is received. Single story home in Rancho Del Cielo, built in 2024. Four bedrooms, two baths, two car garage, open concept living and dining, primary suite separated from secondary bedrooms, covered patio and fenced yard on a corner lot in the Jarrell school district. Buyers should plan for an extended timeline. Lender review commonly runs 60 to 90 days from submission of a complete package. Property conveys in its present condition. Seller will make no repairs and will issue no repair credits.

Key facts

  • Community pool
  • New shower door
  • 5,201 sq ft lot

Tags

VA ASSUMABLE LOAN OPTIONNEW SHOWER DOORCEILING FANS INSTALLEDCOMMUNITY POOLOUTDOOR GATHERING SPACESCONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-35

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (27.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.0% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $145k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
  • Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
  • Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Recommended offer $144,520 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.87%
Cap rate
4.41%
Cash-on-cash
-6.73%
DSCR
0.70
GRM
9.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$242,359
List price
$199,950
Delta
-17.50%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
120 Cattle Queen Rd 0.32mi 3/2.0 1,411 (-1%) 2mo $229,990 $163 82
112 Hasty Heart Ct 0.10mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,500 (+6%) 2mo $219,990 $147 80
522 Mccloud Ct 0.20mi 3/2.0 1,521 (+7%) 1mo $196,999 $130 78
514 Jones Beach Cv 0.29mi 3/2.0 1,354 (-5%) 1mo $195,999 $145 78
513 Texas Angel Way 0.43mi 3/2.0 1,411 (-1%) 2mo $239,990 $170 77
309 Kings Row Ln 0.31mi 3/2.0 1,354 (-5%) 1mo $205,499 $152 77
308 Rancho Del Cielo Loop 0.20mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,483 (+4%) 2mo $208,749 $141 76
523 Mccloud Ct 0.20mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,535 (+8%) 1mo $203,999 $133 71
473 Jones Beach Ln 0.31mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,483 (+4%) 2mo $207,249 $140 71
304 Rancho Del Cielo Loop 0.20mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,575 (+11%) 2mo $235,990 $150 66
453 Jones Beach Ln 0.34mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,575 (+11%) 2mo $213,999 $136 60
440 Jones Beach Ln 0.38mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,575 (+11%) 2mo $218,999 $139 57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-32.2%
Equity multiple
-0.02×
Total profit
$-57,266
Equity at exit
$29,813
10-year hold
IRR
-65.8%
Equity multiple
-0.69×
Total profit
$-94,422
Equity at exit
$17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
61 active · 47 under contract
Months of supply
8.1 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$211,499 ($143/sqft)
Median days on market
43 d
This list price
25% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+19.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

Home prices YoY
-14.4%
Rents YoY
-1.7%
Active inventory
1040
Price-to-rent
9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,739 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,049
Tax from tax record
$455 /mo · $5,466/yr
Insurance
$83
HOA
$100
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$365
Net cashflow
$-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136
Max offer price $144,520
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-201 -5% $-257 +0% $-314 +5% $-370 +10% $-427
Rent -10% $-451 -5% $-382 +0% $-314 +5% $-245 +10% $-176
Rate -1.0pp $-213 -0.5pp $-263 base $-314 +0.5pp $-366 +1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$49,988
Closing costs
$5,998
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1606 $1,750 $1.09 88d 1 0.13mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1606 $1,750 $1.09 94d 1 0.13mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1380 $1,495 $1.08 110d 1 0.13mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1450 $1,550 $1.07 100d 1 0.23mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1450 $1,495 $1.03 139d 1 0.23mi
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1483 $1,745 $1.18 63d 1 0.23mi
101 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.5 1427 $1,450 $1.02 24d 1 0.24mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1230 $1,500 $1.22 119d 1 0.25mi
124 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1400 $1,500 $1.07 42d 1 0.27mi
511 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.5 1692 $1,725 $1.02 0d 1 0.29mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX 3.0 2.0 1411 $1,535 $1.09 116d 1 0.29mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1447 $1,600 $1.11 139d 1 0.30mi
136 Jack Browning Dr Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1200 $1,499 $1.25 24d 1 0.31mi
256 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1450 $1,545 $1.07 24d 1 0.35mi
449 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1483 $1,695 $1.14 24d 1 0.36mi
505 Sergeant Murphy Rd Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1200 $1,375 $1.15 42d 1 0.37mi
408 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1380 $1,600 $1.16 24d 1 0.38mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1266 $1,600 $1.26 98d 1 0.47mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1274 $1,700 $1.33 139d 1 0.47mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX 4.0 2.0 1606 $1,800 $1.12 139d 1 0.48mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1213 $1,750 $1.44 80d 1 0.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Part of Rancho Del Cielo HOAHOA fee of $100 per monthHOA fee includes common area maintenance and internetCommunity amenities: clubhouse, pool, dog park, playground, trails/paths, barbecue and common grounds, community mailbox, pet amenities, curbs, internet access

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with garage door openerTwo covered garage spaces (2-car garage)Driveway parking (total parking for 4 vehicles)Garage faces front
Security
Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
Electricity connectedWater connected via municipal utility districtSewer connected via municipal utility districtUnderground utilities
Home design
Single-story homeNorthwest facingResale property
Construction
Built by LennarHardiPlank-type exteriorBlown-in insulationShingle roofSlab foundation
Exterior features
Private yardExterior lightingBack yardFront yardLocated on a cul-de-sacAutomatic in-ground sprinklers with rain sensor (front, rear, side)

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric rangeFree-standing electric ovenDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorPantry
Bedrooms
Three main-level bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms
Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central airCeiling fans
Interior features
Ceiling fan(s)In-law floorplanMain level primary bedroomNo interior stepsOpen floorplanPantryHigh speed internetDouble pane windows
Laundry & utility
WasherDryerLaundry room located in hall (inside)

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $199,950 Active 160 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $199,950 Active 159 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $199,950 Active 158 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $199,950 Active 157 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $199,950 Active 156 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $199,950 Active 155 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $199,950 Active 154 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $199,950 Active 153 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $199,950 Active 152 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $199,950 Active 151 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $199,950 Active 150 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $199,950 Active 149 DOM
  13. 2026-09-13
    pricestatus $199,950 Active 148 DOM
  14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 148 DOM
  15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 147 DOM
  16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 141 DOM
  17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 140 DOM
  18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 139 DOM
  19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 136 DOM
  20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 135 DOM
  21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
  22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
  23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
  24. 2026-08-26
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
  25. 2026-08-25
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 130 DOM
  26. 2026-08-24
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 129 DOM
  27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 128 DOM
  28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 127 DOM
  29. 2026-08-21
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 126 DOM
  30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 125 DOM
  31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 124 DOM
  32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 123 DOM
  33. 2026-08-17
    statusdays on market $214,950 Active Under Contract 122 DOM
  34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $214,950 Active 121 DOM
  35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $214,950 Active 120 DOM
  36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $214,950 Active 119 DOM
  37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $214,950 Active 118 DOM
  38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $214,950 Active 116 DOM
  39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $214,950 Active 115 DOM
  40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $214,950 Active 114 DOM
  41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $214,950 Active 113 DOM
  42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $214,950 Active 111 DOM
  43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $214,950 Active 110 DOM
  44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $214,950 Active 109 DOM
  45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $214,950 Active 108 DOM
  46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $214,950 Active 105 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $214,950 Active 104 DOM
  48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $214,950 Active 103 DOM
  49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $214,950 Active 102 DOM
  50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $214,950 Active 100 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$5,466 · $455/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$5,466 · $455/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$20,864
− Mortgage interest
−$11,200
− Property taxes
−$5,466
− Insurance
−$1,000
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,669
− Management
−$1,669
− HOA
−$1,200
− Depreciation
−$5,817
Taxable loss
−$7,156
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,718
After-tax cash flow
$-2,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,105–$21,315 screening

This single-story home in Rancho Del Cielo is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It's a low-maintenance property with potential for value increases through minor updates and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping and plant maintenance — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
  • Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which is important for both resale and rental value.
  • Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can increase the home's appeal and value for both buyers and renters.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Jarrell ISD
NCES district ID
4824600
Math proficiency
19% ▼ -18.00%
Reading proficiency
28% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$57,132
Composite
21.47/100
National rank
#8335
State rank
#713 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

Score
71/100
State rank
#313
US rank
#7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Williamson County · 699,027 people
City population
16,272
Metro
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP)
16,272
Household income
$98,199
Rent vs Own
20.5% rent · 79.5% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
699,027 people
By 2030
795,537 · +13.8%
By 2040
990,683 · +41.7%
By 2050
1,184,292 · +69.4%
By 2075
1,623,825 · +132.3%
By 2100
1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity
White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
Common ancestry
Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-4.3% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-14 Price Changed $219,950 Unlock MLS
  • 2026-05-29 Price Changed $224,950 Unlock MLS
  • 2026-04-17 Listed $229,950 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+108.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,466 · +108.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…