8425 Wibaux Rd · Ponder, TX 76259

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · Land · 329 Days on market

Built 2025 8,233 sqft lot $232/sqft · 12% below area Est $284k · 12% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this newly built 2025 LGI Home in Big Sky Estates and a Motivated Seller. The Atticus floor plan offers 3 bedrooms,2 full bathrooms and an open concept floor plan. The Kitchen boast granite counter tops, wood cabinets with crownmolding. A large breakfast bar for casual dining and open to family living area. Big Sky Estates offers walking trails and parks.Step out the backdoor to enjoy the oversized large, fenced in private back yard area.Home is pre owned and move in ready. This home also has an assumable FHA loan at 5.5%. All info contained with in to be verified buy buyer or buyers agent.

Key facts

• Newly built
• Open concept
• Large breakfast bar

Tags

• NEWLY BUILT
• OPEN CONCEPT
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• FENCED IN PRIVATE BACK YARD
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in Ponder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Krum Early Education Center (430 students, 49% FRL); Krum Middle (math 48% / reading 47%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 541 students, 37% FRL); Krum H S (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 686 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $217,341 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.65%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,153
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -12.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-30,717
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-14,328
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $226	+0% $155	+5% $84	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $69	+0% $155	+5% $241	+10% $327
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $218	base $155	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8413 White Wolf Trl Ponder, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,125	$1.63	3d	1	0.10mi
8309 White Wolf Trl Ponder, TX	2.0	2.0	996	$2,020	$2.03	45d	1	0.14mi
8205 White Wolf Trl Ponder, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	45d	1	0.17mi
2018 Pondera St Ponder, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,800	$1.37	45d	1	0.54mi
13613 Mineral Rd Ponder, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,900	$1.44	45d	1	0.55mi
13409 Granite Park Rd Ponder, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,282	$1.41	0d	1	0.63mi
26535 U.S. 380 Unit B2 Ponder, TX	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,350	$1.21	0d	1	0.73mi
26493 U.S. 380 Unit 212 Ponder, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,375	$1.22	0d	1	0.73mi
26535 U.S. 380 , TX	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,350	$1.21	45d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 326 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 325 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 324 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 320 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 317 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 316 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 315 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 312 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 311 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 310 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 309 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 308 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $250,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Come see this newly built 2025 LGI Home in Big Sky Estates and a Motivated Seller. The Atticus floor plan offers 3 bedrooms,2 full bathrooms and an open concept floor plan. The Kitchen boast granite counter tops, wood cabinets with crownmolding. A large breakfast bar for casual dining and open to family living area. Big Sky Estates offers walking trails and parks.Step out the backdoor to enjoy the oversized large, fenced in private back yard area.Home is pre owned and move in ready. This home also has an assumable FHA loan at 5.5%. All info contained with in to be verified buy buyer or buyers agent.

17. 2026-03-30
    price $265,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Come see this newly built 2025 LGI Home in Big Sky Estates and a Motivated Seller. The Atticus floor plan offers 3 bedrooms,2 full bathrooms and an open concept floor plan. The Kitchen boast granite counter tops, wood cabinets with crownmolding. A large breakfast bar for casual dining and open to family living area. Big Sky Estates offers walking trails and parks.Step out the backdoor to enjoy the oversized large, fenced in private back yard area.Home is pre owned and move in ready. This home also has an assumable FHA loan at 5.5%. All info contained with in to be verified buy buyer or buyers agent.

18. 2026-03-26
    price $270,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Come see this newly built 2025 LGI Home in Big Sky Estates and a Motivated Seller. The Atticus floor plan offers 3 bedrooms,2 full bathrooms and an open concept floor plan. The Kitchen boast granite counter tops, wood cabinets with crownmolding. A large breakfast bar for casual dining and open to family living area. Big Sky Estates offers walking trails and parks.Step out the backdoor to enjoy the oversized large, fenced in private back yard area.Home is pre owned and move in ready. This home also has an assumable FHA loan at 5.5%. All info contained with in to be verified buy buyer or buyers agent.

19. 2025-12-17
    price $275,900 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Come see this newly built 2025 LGI Home in Big Sky Estates and a Motivated Seller. The Atticus floor plan offers 3 bedrooms,2 full bathrooms and an open concept floor plan. The Kitchen boast granite counter tops, wood cabinets with crownmolding. A large breakfast bar for casual dining and open to family living area. Big Sky Estates offers walking trails and parks.Step out the backdoor to enjoy the oversized large, fenced in private back yard area.Home is pre owned and move in ready. This home also has an assumable FHA loan at 5.5%. All info contained with in to be verified buy buyer or buyers agent.

20. 2025-07-27
    listed $289,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Come see this newly built 2025 LGI Home in Big Sky Estates and a Motivated Seller. The Atticus floor plan offers 3 bedrooms,2 full bathrooms and an open concept floor plan. The Kitchen boast granite counter tops, wood cabinets with crownmolding. A large breakfast bar for casual dining and open to family living area. Big Sky Estates offers walking trails and parks.Step out the backdoor to enjoy the oversized large, fenced in private back yard area.Home is pre owned and move in ready. This home also has an assumable FHA loan at 5.5%. All info contained with in to be verified buy buyer or buyers agent.

21. 2025-04-29
    soldstatus Closed 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    The stunning Atticus floor plan offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms and an open-concept layout. Its luminous kitchen boasts sprawling granite countertops, wood cabinets with crown molding and energy-efficient Whirlpool® appliances, blending style and functionality seamlessly. The expansive granite breakfast bar provides ample seating for casual dining and meal preparation. With an adjacent family room fostering togetherness, every moment becomes special. Between the master suite and spacious secondary bedroom, everyone in the family will have a space of their own. LGI simplifies the home-buying process by including sought-after upgrades at no extra cost, ensuring your dream home exceeds expectations without compromise.

22. 2025-03-10
    status Pending 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    The stunning Atticus floor plan offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms and an open-concept layout. Its luminous kitchen boasts sprawling granite countertops, wood cabinets with crown molding and energy-efficient Whirlpool® appliances, blending style and functionality seamlessly. The expansive granite breakfast bar provides ample seating for casual dining and meal preparation. With an adjacent family room fostering togetherness, every moment becomes special. Between the master suite and spacious secondary bedroom, everyone in the family will have a space of their own. LGI simplifies the home-buying process by including sought-after upgrades at no extra cost, ensuring your dream home exceeds expectations without compromise.

23. 2025-03-03
    status Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    The stunning Atticus floor plan offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms and an open-concept layout. Its luminous kitchen boasts sprawling granite countertops, wood cabinets with crown molding and energy-efficient Whirlpool® appliances, blending style and functionality seamlessly. The expansive granite breakfast bar provides ample seating for casual dining and meal preparation. With an adjacent family room fostering togetherness, every moment becomes special. Between the master suite and spacious secondary bedroom, everyone in the family will have a space of their own. LGI simplifies the home-buying process by including sought-after upgrades at no extra cost, ensuring your dream home exceeds expectations without compromise.

24. 2025-02-24
    status Pending 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    The stunning Atticus floor plan offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms and an open-concept layout. Its luminous kitchen boasts sprawling granite countertops, wood cabinets with crown molding and energy-efficient Whirlpool® appliances, blending style and functionality seamlessly. The expansive granite breakfast bar provides ample seating for casual dining and meal preparation. With an adjacent family room fostering togetherness, every moment becomes special. Between the master suite and spacious secondary bedroom, everyone in the family will have a space of their own. LGI simplifies the home-buying process by including sought-after upgrades at no extra cost, ensuring your dream home exceeds expectations without compromise.

25. 2025-02-07
    listed $287,900 Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    The stunning Atticus floor plan offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms and an open-concept layout. Its luminous kitchen boasts sprawling granite countertops, wood cabinets with crown molding and energy-efficient Whirlpool® appliances, blending style and functionality seamlessly. The expansive granite breakfast bar provides ample seating for casual dining and meal preparation. With an adjacent family room fostering togetherness, every moment becomes special. Between the master suite and spacious secondary bedroom, everyone in the family will have a space of their own. LGI simplifies the home-buying process by including sought-after upgrades at no extra cost, ensuring your dream home exceeds expectations without compromise.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,244/yr (+$270/mo · 243.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$572
• After-tax cash flow: $2,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $275,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-27 Listed $289,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-03-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-02-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $287,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,331 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.