5712 Ivy Crst · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 $170/sqft · at area comps Est $233k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($866/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,046 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,807
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: 3.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-39,435
• Equity at exit: $35,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-48,465
• Equity at exit: $20,750

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,149/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,899

Max offer price $239,990

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25553 Blossom Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,690	$1.35	3d	1	0.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $239,990 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

3. 2026-05-11
   price $189,990 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

4. 2026-04-29
   price $218,990 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

5. 2026-04-28
   price $209,990 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

6. 2026-04-20
   price $212,140 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

7. 2026-04-07
   price $226,940 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

8. 2026-04-01
   listed $239,990 Active 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Kitson" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Magnolia Springs! The Kitson J is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,149 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,243/yr (+$270/mo · 282.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$1,149
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$783
• After-tax cash flow: $1,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $218,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $212,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $226,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $239,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+123.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,149 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.