Carlyle Plan · St. John Fisher College, NY 14625

$125,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1 sqft · Manufactured · 553 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 553 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 16.6% in St. John Fisher College — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $110,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.24%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,013
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $47,954
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14625

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$157 /mo · $1,888/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3540 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1261	$4,123	$3.27	2d	10	0.50mi
3765 East Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1826	$2,900	$1.59	2d	1	0.72mi
278 Penn Ln Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1184	$2,100	$1.77	3d	1	1.10mi
18 Brook Hill Ln Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,915	$2.28	2d	1	1.14mi
234 W Commercial St Unit 2 East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	640	$1,100	$1.72	43d	1	1.22mi
214 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	1.35mi
709 Garfield St East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	2915	$1,300	$0.45	2d	1	1.35mi
508 1/2 Garfield St East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	—	$1,700	—	2d	1	1.35mi
218 1/2 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.36mi
126 West Ave Unit UPPER East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,500	$1.83	19d	1	1.41mi
108 W Filbert St Unit 2 East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,900 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,900 Active 548 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,900 Active 545 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,900 Active 544 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,900 Active 543 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,900 Active 542 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,900 Active 538 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,900 Active 537 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,900 Active 536 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,900 Active 535 DOM
14. 2024-12-13
    listed $125,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,888
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable income: $3,957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$950
• After-tax cash flow: $4,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs, including new siding and roof, and routine maintenance such as repainting. Significant updates would substantially increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible roof condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both new siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both new roof — Improves structural integrity and value
• Both paint — Fresh paint improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible roof condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both new siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both new roof — Improves structural integrity and value ↑
• Both paint — Fresh paint improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. John Fisher College

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,667

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.69%
• Current HPI: 275.9721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Listed $125,900 Zillow