8702 Village Mill Row · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$232,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,771 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1978 5,950 sqft lot Est $426k · 45% under · waterfront $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Florida living! Absolutely beautiful waterfront home. perfect for fishing, boating. birdwatching etc. Features include open floor plan, large glassed Florida room, recently renovated bathrooms, tile floors, new appliances, 2 car garage, etc. This is a truly tranquil (and convenient to every thing) and a must see. !

Key facts

• 5,950 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact: Jose Ponton
• Financial info: Total annual fees listed as $360; Lease restrictions not indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA; association fees required; Monthly HOA amount listed as $30 (quarterly association fee $90); Community amenities include park and pool; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage door opener; Ground-level access; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces north; PUD zoning; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built as single-story (one level)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Paved road access; Creek water view and creek access; Fishing pier; Boating restricted (no boats allowed)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer; Bar fridge; Electric and gas water heater (listed among appliances)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Attic fan
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen-family room combo; Split bedroom layout; Electric fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Accessible washer/dryer features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($689/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,044/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,410 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,571
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12406 Parchment Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-5%)	1mo	$367,000	$219	82
12303 Fieldstone Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (+1%)	3mo	$225,000	$126	78
12504 Stagecoach Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-6%)	4mo	$272,000	$163	72
8501 Mill Creek Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-9%)	0mo	$260,000	$161	70
12200 Silk Oak Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,959 (+11%)	3mo	$335,000	$171	67
11610 Bee Hive Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,698 (-4%)	2mo	$310,000	$183	59
8301 Valley Stream Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,873 (+6%)	2mo	$350,000	$187	59
8205 Valley Stream Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-5%)	4mo	$255,000	$151	52
8204 Heartwood Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-14%)	2mo	$270,000	$178	52
8200 Mill Creek Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-14%)	2mo	$242,500	$160	49
12600 Canton Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-14%)	0mo	$380,000	$250	40
12903 Sunhill Cir	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-14%)	3mo	$275,000	$181	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,925
• Equity at exit: $34,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-53,198
• Equity at exit: $20,059

Cash invested: $64,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,570/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,971

Max offer price $232,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $123	+0% $57	+5% $-8	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-23	+0% $57	+5% $138	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $116	base $57	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	26d	1	0.42mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	5d	10	0.66mi
13013 Sawmill Way Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,790	$1.18	7d	1	0.72mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	20d	1	0.81mi
8811 Seeley Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1981	$1,895	$0.96	20d	1	0.84mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	24d	1	0.92mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	7d	1	0.92mi
13121 Shadberry Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$1,889	$1.07	5d	1	0.94mi
13220 Whaler Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$1,990	$1.27	26d	1	1.03mi
13306 Lakeshore Blvd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,500	$0.88	1d	1	1.23mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	26d	1	1.34mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	26d	1	1.36mi
13642 Dunwoody Ct Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,295	$1.33	18d	1	1.39mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	26d	1	1.40mi
8724 Ashbury Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	2331	$2,900	$1.24	26d	1	1.42mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	26d	1	1.43mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	1.43mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	26d	1	1.49mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	26d	1	1.50mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $232,000 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $232,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
9. 2026-04-17
   price $236,500
10. 2026-03-27
    status Active
11. 2026-03-24
    historical
12. 2026-03-24
    listed $240,000
13. 2026-02-24
    historical
14. 2026-02-16
    listed $239,500 Active
15. 2019-07-29
    soldstatus $167,000
16. 2019-07-26
    soldstatus $167,000 Sold 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Welcome to Florida living! Absolutely beautiful waterfront home. perfect for fishing, boating. birdwatching etc. Features include open floor plan, large glassed Florida room, recently renovated bathrooms, tile floors, new appliances, 2 car garage, etc. This is a truly tranquil (and convenient to every thing) and a must see. !

17. 2019-07-01
    status Pending 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Welcome to Florida living! Absolutely beautiful waterfront home. perfect for fishing, boating. birdwatching etc. Features include open floor plan, large glassed Florida room, recently renovated bathrooms, tile floors, new appliances, 2 car garage, etc. This is a truly tranquil (and convenient to every thing) and a must see. !

18. 2019-05-08
    price $169,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Welcome to Florida living! Absolutely beautiful waterfront home. perfect for fishing, boating. birdwatching etc. Features include open floor plan, large glassed Florida room, recently renovated bathrooms, tile floors, new appliances, 2 car garage, etc. This is a truly tranquil (and convenient to every thing) and a must see. !

19. 2019-05-06
    listed $165,000 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Welcome to Florida living! Absolutely beautiful waterfront home. perfect for fishing, boating. birdwatching etc. Features include open floor plan, large glassed Florida room, recently renovated bathrooms, tile floors, new appliances, 2 car garage, etc. This is a truly tranquil (and convenient to every thing) and a must see. !

20. 2018-11-14
    soldstatus $145,000
21. 2018-11-13
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold
22. 2018-10-25
    status Pending
23. 2018-10-18
    price $152,900
24. 2018-10-18
    status Active
25. 2018-10-11
    status Pending
26. 2018-10-06
    price $154,999
27. 2018-10-01
    price $157,400
28. 2018-09-10
    price $159,900
29. 2018-08-23
    price $164,900
30. 2018-08-04
    price $169,900
31. 2018-07-17
    price $174,900
32. 2018-07-09
    listed $179,900 Active
33. 1998-12-16
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,570 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,570 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,570
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$3,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $1,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+184.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $236,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-26 Sold (MLS) $167,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-08 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-13 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-18 Price Changed $152,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-06 Price Changed $154,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $157,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-10 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-23 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-04 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-17 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-09 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,570 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.