2527 Merriman St · Port Neches, TX 77651

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1978 0.38 ac lot $140/sqft · 12% above area Est $311k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely old country home on large lot in Port Neches with Port Neches/Groves Schools. Floor plan has open concept with separate bedroom floor plan, breakfast area, breakfast bar, refrigerator, gas stove, dishwasher stay with home, covered front porch & wood deck in the back with privacy fenced back lawn & storage shed. Home is Handicap Accessible on front porch, back deck & also Master bath.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Large lot
• Gas stove

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT
• BREAKFAST AREA
• BREAKFAST BAR
• GAS STOVE
• DISHWASHER STAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#139 in TX, #3,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Port Neches-Groves ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,405 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.09%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,252
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -26.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Barbara Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+0%)	11mo	$239,000	$145	77
2414 Merriman St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+3%)	14mo	$204,900	$121	75
2325 Patricia Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+7%)	11mo	$319,000	$182	64
3148 Galewood Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	10mo	$269,900	$169	61
2705 15th Street St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,754 (+7%)	1mo	$260,000	$148	55
845 Goodwin Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-10%)	13mo	$199,000	$135	55
749 Eveningview Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-8%)	12mo	$270,000	$179	52
2626 Staton Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+10%)	12mo	$221,499	$123	50
3153 Merriman St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-12%)	10mo	$239,900	$166	47
3152 Sandalwood Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-14%)	1mo	$199,900	$141	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-62,096
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-85,468
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77651

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$522 /mo · $6,260/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,392

Max offer price $160,405

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-263	-5% $-328	+0% $-393	+5% $-458	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-543	-5% $-468	+0% $-393	+5% $-319	+10% $-244
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-335	base $-393	+0.5pp $-453	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3148 Sandalwood Dr Port Neches, TX	3.0	2.0	1724	$2,100	$1.22	23d	1	0.50mi
304 Avenue E Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,900	$1.26	15d	1	1.25mi
1107 S 16th St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	1395	$1,250	$0.90	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $229,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    listed $249,000 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Lovely old country home on large lot in Port Neches with Port Neches/Groves Schools. Floor plan has open concept with separate bedroom floor plan, breakfast area, breakfast bar, refrigerator, gas stove, dishwasher stay with home, covered front porch & wood deck in the back with privacy fenced back lawn & storage shed. Home is Handicap Accessible on front porch, back deck & also Master bath.

17. 2023-05-13
    historical
18. 2023-04-13
    status Pending
19. 2023-01-31
    listed $195,000 Active
20. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus
21. 2022-03-24
    soldstatus
22. 2019-11-26
    soldstatus
23. 2019-11-26
    soldstatus
24. 2019-01-02
    listed $154,900
25. 2015-09-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,260 · $522/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,260 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$6,260
• − Insurance: −$1,947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$8,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Neches-Groves ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835430
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,661
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4152
• State rank: #260 of 826 in TX

Livability — Port Neches

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #3996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Neches, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,627

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.68%
• Current HPI: 186.228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $249,000 BBOR
• 2023-05-13 Delisted — BBOR
• 2023-04-13 Pending — BBOR
• 2023-01-31 Listed $195,000 BBOR
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-26 Sold (MLS) — PNPANBOR
• 2019-01-02 Listed $154,900 PNPANBOR
• 2015-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,260 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.