16530 California Ave · Markham, IL 60428

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1964 3,125 sqft lot Est $181k · 12% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring a spacious 2.5-car garage and neutral colors throughout. This well-maintained property offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and plenty of natural light. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances, including a washer and dryer for added convenience. Ideal for homeowners or investors alike, this move-in ready home is a great opportunity in a convenient location.

Key facts

• 3,125 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Property has not been rebuilt or rehabbed
• Financial info: Special service area: No
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (approximately 2.5 garage spaces / 2.5 total parking)
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Built 61–70 years ago; Vinyl siding and brick exterior
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 25 x 125; Lot is less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (17 x 10)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom dimensions include 11 x 13 (master), 10 x 11, and 10 x 9
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (9 x 11); In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#186 in IL, #3,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, employment D.
• Bremen Chsd 228 (suburban): math 15% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #468 of 620 in IL (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.98%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,748
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16557 Plymouth Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+5%)	4mo	$198,000	$152	83
16364 California Ave	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,133 (-8%)	5mo	$160,000	$141	72
16614 Plymouth Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,117 (-10%)	4mo	$75,000	$67	72
16537 California Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-15%)	7mo	$160,000	$152	67
16641 Sawyer Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,260 (+2%)	3mo	$188,000	$149	61
16516 Turner Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	61
2732 Circle Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,269 (+2%)	3mo	$125,000	$99	60
16165 Oxford Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,061 (-14%)	3mo	$154,900	$146	52
16101 Richmond Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-11%)	8mo	$172,000	$156	50
16047 Cambridge Ct	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,066 (-14%)	5mo	$196,800	$185	45
16846 Orchard Ridge Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,076 (-13%)	6mo	$106,000	$99	40
16738 Crane Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,059 (-14%)	2mo	$147,000	$139	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $115,138
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $317,281
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60428

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,355/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $489	+0% $444	+5% $399	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $351	+0% $444	+5% $538	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $485	base $444	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	0d	1	0.52mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	0d	1	0.74mi
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	0.76mi
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	0d	1	0.82mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	0d	1	1.05mi
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	0d	1	1.13mi
2722 Larkspur Ln Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1441	$2,650	$1.84	13d	1	1.30mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,500	$2.13	18d	1	1.49mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,300	$1.96	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Active
2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-25
   status Active
4. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-13
   status Active
6. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-03
   status Active
8. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-26
   status Active
10. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
11. 2026-03-19
    price $159,000
12. 2026-03-19
    listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,355 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,355 · $530/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$6,355
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $3,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$775
• After-tax cash flow: $4,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bremen Chsd 228
• NCES district ID: 1707050
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 15.32/100
• National rank: #9327
• State rank: #468 of 620 in IL

Livability — Markham

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #3539

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, IL
• City population: 10,980
• Population (ZIP): 10,980

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 11% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 302.333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $159,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $189,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,355 · +70.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.