114 Mt Carmel · Natchez, MS 39120

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,017 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 277 Days on market

Built 1954 0.25 ac lot $39/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Large backyard
• Newly restored deck

Tags

• MORGANTOWN SUBDIVISION
• CENTRAL HEATING AND COOLING
• COVERED PARKING
• LARGE BACKYARD
• NEWLY RESTORED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.93%
• DSCR: 4.47
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,724
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -52.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1235 Magnolia Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	1mo	$55,000	$55	76
405 Oakland Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	957 (-6%)	2mo	$85,000	$89	74
2163 Second St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,016 (-0%)	15mo	$82,000	$81	67
716 Morgan Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	898 (-12%)	14mo	$65,000	$72	49
217 Oak Hill Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,119 (+10%)	8mo	$129,000	$115	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $39,805
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.45×
• Total profit: $94,418
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,434/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 276 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 275 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 274 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $39,900 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,900 Active 262 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,900 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,900 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,900 Active 259 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $45,900 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

16. 2026-04-19
    status Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

17. 2026-04-13
    historical 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

18. 2026-02-05
    price $49,500 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

19. 2026-01-13
    price $60,000 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

20. 2025-11-03
    status Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

21. 2025-10-12
    historical 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

22. 2024-10-12
    listed $65,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Attention Investors! This 3 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom Home in the Morgantown Subdivision offers a unique blend of Charm, Functionality, and Income potential. Features include: Spacious Bedrooms, Central Heating and Cooling, Covered Parking, and a Large Backyard with plenty of space for entertainment. The Newly Restored Deck offers a fantastic outdoor retreat, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Don't miss this rare opportunity to invest in a thriving market. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this income-producing property yours.

23. 2024-08-12
    historical
24. 2023-08-07
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,434 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,434
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,072
• After-tax cash flow: $6,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-38.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $45,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $49,500 MLSU
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $60,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-10-12 Listed $65,000 MLSU
• 2024-08-12 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-08-07 Listed $75,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,434 · +23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.