1321 15th St · Miami Beach, FL 33139

$5,100,000

12 bd · 12.0 ba · 8,449 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1951 ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 14 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

a fully licensed 14-unit short-term rental property located in the highly coveted West Avenue district of Miami Beach. This turnkey hospitality asset offers an exceptionally rare opportunity to acquire a legally operating STR building within one of the most supply-restricted and tightly regulated jurisdictions in the United States. The property has been modernized and professionally operated, featuring fully furnished units with contemporary finishes, kitchenettes, and on-site amenities designed to support seamless guest turnover. Positioned just steps from Lincoln Road, Flamingo Park, Sunset Harbor, and the ocean, 1321 15th Street benefits from year-round tourism demand, strong ADRs, and a

Key facts

• On-site amenities
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1951

Tags

• SHORT-TERM RENTAL PROPERTY
• LEGALLY OPERATING STR BUILDING
• FULLY FURNISHED UNITS
• CONTEMPORARY FINISHES
• ON-SITE AMENITIES
• STEPS FROM LINCOLN ROAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning code 3900
• Financial info: Rent includes sewer, trash collection, and water

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale; Concrete roof; Block construction
• Construction: Block construction; Concrete roof; Built as resale (year built details: resale)
• Exterior features: Less than quarter acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood and wood
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 14 × 1-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $5.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($96k/yr) — positive. Per door: $569/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $4.99M (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $4.49M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $49,918/mo this rent would consume 858% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $35k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $112k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($4.49M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,488,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.19% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-291,163
• Equity at exit: $946,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-16,571
• Equity at exit: $768,202

Cash invested: $1,428,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33139

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 119.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $49,918 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26,745
• Tax from tax record: −$2,167 /mo · $26,000/yr
• Insurance: −$2,125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,483
• Net cashflow: $7,972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $39,827

Max offer price $5,100,000

Occupancy floor 79%

14-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 14× units	1	—	$49,924
Total (14 units)			$49,918

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,275,000
• Closing costs: $153,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,100,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,100,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-04-09
   price $5,100,000
4. 2025-12-15
   listed $5,500,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $26,000 · $2,167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $42,330 · $3,528/mo
• Expected delta: +$16,330/yr (+$1,361/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $599,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$285,679
• − Property taxes: −$26,000
• − Insurance: −$30,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$47,921
• − Management: −$47,921
• − Depreciation: −$148,364
• Taxable income: $12,512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,003
• After-tax cash flow: $92,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1672

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,533
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,753
• Household income: $69,793
• Rent vs Own: 62.8% rent · 37.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4052.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 15% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.19%
• Current HPI: 277.9321
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $5,100,000 MARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $5,500,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2016): $26,000 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.