290 Traverse Blvd · Tonawanda Town, NY 14223

$185,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1950 4,920 sqft lot Est $293k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very cute Cape Cod! Two bdrms on the first floor, and two upstairs or a Primary Suite with half bath. Replacement windows, neutral decor awaits your personal touch. LR/DR combo flows from eat-in kitchen. Large corner lot, fully fenced yard.

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Tankless hot water
• Forced air heating

Tags

• TANKLESS HOT WATER
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• FORCED AIR HEATING
• CENTRAL A/C

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($422/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Herbert Hoover Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 565 students, 43% FRL); Herbert Hoover Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 758 students, 51% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Zimmerman Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,389 (+4%)	0mo	$280,000	$202	83
259 Traverse Blvd	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-6%)	0mo	$293,000	$235	79
110 Traverse Blvd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,290 (-3%)	2mo	$255,000	$198	77
435 Zimmerman Blvd	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,254 (-6%)	1mo	$210,000	$167	75
119 Orchard Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,414 (+6%)	1mo	$230,000	$163	67
11 Colvinhurst Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	2mo	$333,000	$238	65
175 Cleveland Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+10%)	1mo	$330,000	$224	62
71 Gardenwood Ln	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,499 (+12%)	3mo	$237,750	$159	60
177 Mcconkey Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-10%)	2mo	$250,000	$208	59
86 Highland Pkwy	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,428 (+7%)	1mo	$342,500	$240	56
131 Colvinhurst Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-12%)	0mo	$260,000	$222	51
74 Old Colony Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-13%)	1mo	$255,000	$220	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-27,541
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,299
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14223

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,025/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,961

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $88	+0% $35	+5% $-17	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-44	+0% $35	+5% $114	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $82	base $35	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	25d	1	0.83mi
49 Tulane Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	19d	1	0.87mi
52 Somerton Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	25d	1	1.02mi
52 Kenwood Rd Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	25d	1	1.11mi
3113 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1083	$1,200	$1.11	25d	1	1.11mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	19d	1	1.13mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	25d	1	1.22mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	1.28mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	1.33mi
954 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,700	$1.09	5d	1	1.33mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	12d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $185,000 Active
3. 2021-11-15
   soldstatus $180,000 Closed Sale or Rented 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Very cute Cape Cod! Two bdrms on the first floor, and two upstairs or a Primary Suite with half bath. Replacement windows, neutral decor awaits your personal touch. LR/DR combo flows from eat-in kitchen. Large corner lot, fully fenced yard.

4. 2021-11-15
   soldstatus $180,000

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Very cute Cape Cod! Two bdrms on the first floor, and two upstairs or a Primary Suite with half bath. Replacement windows, neutral decor awaits your personal touch. LR/DR combo flows from eat-in kitchen. Large corner lot, fully fenced yard.

5. 2021-09-14
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Very cute Cape Cod! Two bdrms on the first floor, and two upstairs or a Primary Suite with half bath. Replacement windows, neutral decor awaits your personal touch. LR/DR combo flows from eat-in kitchen. Large corner lot, fully fenced yard.

6. 2021-08-26
   listed $169,900 Active 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Very cute Cape Cod! Two bdrms on the first floor, and two upstairs or a Primary Suite with half bath. Replacement windows, neutral decor awaits your personal touch. LR/DR combo flows from eat-in kitchen. Large corner lot, fully fenced yard.

7. 2007-04-13
   soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,025 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,025 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$6,025
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$595
• After-tax cash flow: $1,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,611
• Household income: $84,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.18%
• Current HPI: 320.9379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+76.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $185,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (MLS) $180,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-08-26 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,025 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.