13 3rd Ave · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$104,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1905 6,480 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, flippers, and rehab enthusiasts! This North Tonawanda opportunity is ready for its next chapter. With four large bedrooms, generous living space, and a huge yard, the bones are here for a profitable transformation. The home needs significant updating and refreshing throughout, making it an ideal project for those looking to add value through renovations. The good news? Some of the major expenses have already been addressed with a newer roof and central air system, allowing you to focus your budget on modernizing the interior and maximizing the home's potential. Whether you're looking for your next flip, a buy-and-hold investment, or a project with substantial upside,

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Newer roof
• Central air system

Tags

• HUGE YARD
• NEWER ROOF
• CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric service (standard connections)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 108

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; See remarks / other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.9% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,455/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $105k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,424 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.79%
• DSCR: 4.59
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 5th Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,429 (+3%)	3mo	$215,000	$150	81
120 7th Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,496 (+8%)	1mo	$87,500	$58	66
129 Dahlgreen Pl	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,570 (+13%)	1mo	$231,000	$147	60
189 Lincoln Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (+4%)	4mo	$231,080	$161	57
732 Barrally St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,302 (-6%)	2mo	$280,000	$215	56
203 Edward St	0.38mi	4/1.0	1,202 (-13%)	5mo	$250,000	$208	56
671 Treichler St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,445 (+4%)	3mo	$300,000	$208	55
223 Schenck St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-7%)	2mo	$169,400	$132	52
508 Bryant St	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,552 (+12%)	1mo	$279,700	$180	50
228 Robinson St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,557 (+12%)	2mo	$198,000	$127	49
425 Wheatfield St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+11%)	1mo	$270,000	$176	42
247 Oliver	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (-15%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $119,708
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.65×
• Total profit: $313,038
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,871/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $1,979

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $104,999

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,039	-5% $2,009	+0% $1,979	+5% $1,950	+10% $1,920
Rent	-10% $1,706	-5% $1,843	+0% $1,979	+5% $2,116	+10% $2,252
Rate	-1.0pp $2,032	-0.5pp $2,006	base $1,979	+0.5pp $1,952	+1.0pp $1,924

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	2d	12	0.18mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.59mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	11d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,999 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,999 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,999 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,999 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,999 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,999 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,999 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $104,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,871
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,317
• − Management: −$3,317
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $23,496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,639
• After-tax cash flow: $18,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+63.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $104,999 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $104,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $109,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $64,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,871 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.