1864 Michigan City Rd · Calumet City, IL 60409

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 2002 9,450 sqft lot Est $205k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and buy beautiful and cozy by-level property. Lots of natural light on this property, it offers three good size bedrooms with a master bath on the main floor, Living room and Eat-In Kitchen. Lower level floor A family room with gas fire place, laundry room and attach 2 car garage. Seller wil enclosed the property line for a much more privacy with a new fence leading towards the eastside of the property before closing.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Natural light
• Gas fire place

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• FAMILY ROOM
• GAS FIRE PLACE
• NEW FENCE
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: School bus service available; Property located in Calumet City, Thornton township; Parcel and additional parcel references on file; Directions: South 94 expressway to Sibley Blvd. East to Michigan City Rd to property
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (owns) with 2 garage spaces; Total parking for 2 cars; Asphalt driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Lake Michigan water source; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 1.5-story / bi-level layout; Fee simple ownership; Estimated living area; Age: approximately 41–50 years
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Block and concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating-area kitchen; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (approx. 12 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on main level (each approx. 11 x 11)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in living room, master bedroom and two bedrooms; Ceramic tile in dining room, family room and kitchen; Other flooring in laundry
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Baths feature a whirlpool, separate shower, and an accessible shower; Basement includes a bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hot tub; Finished partial basement; Kitchen/Dining combo; Seven total rooms; One fireplace in the great room (electric with gas starter)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level; In-unit laundry hookups; Gas and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,289/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 2415% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $209k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $183,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.62%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
627 Paxton Ave	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,335 (-2%)	7mo	$189,000	$142	83
591 Paxton Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-2%)	3mo	$261,000	$195	82
651 Bensley Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,277 (-7%)	2mo	$235,000	$184	66
615 Hoxie Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+3%)	8mo	$150,000	$107	64
620 Yates Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,482 (+8%)	4mo	$214,000	$144	64
665 Hoxie Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,264 (-8%)	2mo	$188,000	$149	59
453 Hoxie Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,304 (-5%)	0mo	$195,000	$150	57
494 Oglesby Ave	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,252 (-8%)	2mo	$245,000	$196	56
1760 E 158th St	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,462 (+7%)	2mo	$155,755	$107	50
605 Saginaw Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,250 (-9%)	6mo	$190,000	$152	47
372 Bensley Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-9%)	2mo	$235,000	$188	44
15403 Dorchester Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,166 (-15%)	6mo	$95,000	$81	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,675
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $87,530
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60409

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $696/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $626	+0% $567	+5% $508	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $386	-5% $476	+0% $567	+5% $657	+10% $748
Rate	-1.0pp $672	-0.5pp $620	base $567	+0.5pp $513	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
660 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	4d	1	0.08mi
659 Paxton Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,461	$1.96	11d	1	0.09mi
15400 Merrill Ave South Holland, IL	4.0	2.0	1508	$3,330	$2.21	23d	1	0.15mi
405 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	973	$2,300	$2.36	0d	1	0.56mi
409 Madison Ave Unit 2 Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,795	$1.50	5d	1	0.60mi
671 Saginaw Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,276	$1.82	11d	1	0.65mi
15707 Dante Dr South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,950	$1.64	4d	1	0.79mi
15231 Hastings Dr Dolton, IL	4.0	1.5	1487	$2,146	$1.44	8d	1	0.87mi
14738 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	11d	1	0.88mi
1860 State St Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	18d	1	0.91mi
250 Yates Ave Unit 1616 Dolton 1E Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,465	$1.67	8d	1	0.96mi
14716 Dorchester Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	20d	1	1.01mi
14610 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	7d	1	1.04mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	1.07mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	20d	1	1.07mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	13d	1	1.07mi
14518 S Hoxie Ave Chicago, IL	3.0	1.5	1128	$2,450	$2.17	0d	1	1.09mi
1429 Kasten Dr Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	0d	1	1.11mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	7d	1	1.23mi
2605 E Martha Pl Chicago, IL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,860	$1.37	23d	1	1.23mi
2790 E State St Apt 2E Burnham, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	25d	1	1.40mi
14433 Woodlawn Ave Dolton, IL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $209,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $219,000 Active
17. 2008-10-20
    soldstatus $74,000
18. 2003-03-28
    soldstatus $245,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $696 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,024/yr (+$169/mo · 290.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$696
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $3,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$850
• After-tax cash flow: $5,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Calumet City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #6552

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calumet City, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 35,100
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 35,100
• Household income: $55,369
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2415.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% White 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.01%
• Current HPI: 197.2137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.17%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $219,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $696 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.