54 Saxton Cir · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 347 Days on market

Built 1973 $111/sqft · 78% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a home with a garage! Spacious updated 2 bedroom home and 2 bathroom home with a garage located in Stonegate Estates 55+ Community! Bright and light home features large U shaped kitchen with a dining bar that overlooks the family room area and has a spacious living room which opens up to a large covered deck. Large Windows and Slider Door gives plenty of light to this home. Updates include: New Laminate Floors with baseboards, Updated Custom Cabinetry in bathrooms with new fixtures, Dual Pane Windows, Newer HVAC System, Custom fans w/ lights in each room and is Freshly painted inside. Master Bathroom features large walk-in shower plus both Bedrooms feature walk-in closets. Sepa

Key facts

• Large covered deck
• New laminate floors
• U shaped kitchen

Tags

• U SHAPED KITCHEN
• DINING BAR
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORS
• UPDATED CUSTOM CABINETRY
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.99%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,000
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 77.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Corto Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	8mo	$75,000	$55	79
104 Cambria	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,290 (-10%)	0mo	$119,900	$93	78
206 Pau Hana Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$130,000	$97	75
266 Corto Ln #266	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,528 (+6%)	8mo	$37,500	$25	75
250 Corto Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+4%)	11mo	$109,900	$73	73
252 Corto Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$62,500	$43	70
258 Corto Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$85,000	$63	70
209 Pau Hana Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$79,500	$59	68
241 Pau Hana Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,341 (-7%)	21mo	$76,000	$57	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $455
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $28,565
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $558	-5% $503	+0% $447	+5% $392	+10% $337
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $370	+0% $447	+5% $525	+10% $603
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $488	base $447	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7434 Auburn Oaks Ct Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	24d	4	0.33mi
7434 Auburn Oaks Ct Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,975	$2.22	4d	1	0.33mi
7445 Auburn Oaks Ct Unit K Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	929	$1,695	$1.82	45d	1	0.36mi
7445 Auburn Oaks Ct Unit K Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	929	$1,700	$1.83	23d	1	0.36mi
6841 Castleberry Cir Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1162	$2,300	$1.98	5d	1	0.48mi
7603 Linden Ave Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,900	$1.92	19d	1	0.74mi
7437 Antelope Rd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.5	1287	$2,550	$1.98	5d	1	0.81mi
333 Cirby Way Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$2,115	$2.66	3d	4	0.87mi
425 Cirby Way Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$2,274	$2.80	3d	1	0.91mi
7915 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	1015	$1,895	$1.87	23d	1	1.00mi
3 Somer Ridge Dr Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,270	$2.50	3d	6	1.04mi
7658 Poppy Way Unit 7658 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	4d	1	1.05mi
7658 Poppy Way Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,785	$1.98	15d	1	1.05mi
7827 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1031	$1,995	$1.94	15d	1	1.10mi
209 Live Oak Cir Roseville, CA	1.0	1.0	1310	$1,495	$1.14	3d	1	1.15mi
7761 Pompei Ct Unit 7763 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,705	$1.89	24d	1	1.27mi
6413 Tupelo Dr Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,000	$2.58	3d	10	1.27mi
7541 Ramona Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	3d	9	1.36mi
348 B St Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,995	$1.73	3d	1	1.45mi
8237 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	8d	1	1.47mi
210 D St Roseville, CA	3.0	2.5	1433	$2,795	$1.95	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $159,900 Pending 347 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 347 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$720
• After-tax cash flow: $4,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B