2011 N Twig Pt · Inverness, FL 34453

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1970 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Florida WATERFRONT with seawall and direct access to big fishing lake! At an unbelievable price! Great layout on a big fenced lot and double width gate. Very clean, very tidy! Ready for a little fixing up. It needs the exterior part of air conditioning--the interior air handler was installed and never used, the home is ducted for AC. Handyman is coming to fix the ceiling in primary bedroom. Come see it and make an offer today before repairs are made and the price goes up!

Key facts

• Direct access
• Seawall
• Big fenced lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• SEAWALL
• DIRECT ACCESS
• BIG FISHING LAKE
• BIG FENCED LOT
• DOUBLE WIDTH GATE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide or double wide); One story; On waterfront
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Cul-de-sac lot; Level lot; Waterfront lot with lake privileges, canal access and seawall

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Appliances included
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Wall/window cooling units; No central air
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.9% in Inverness — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#564 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $115k implies a 576% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.58%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,467
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2050 N Branch Pt	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-7%)	10mo	$157,000	$149	69
7897 E Wooded Trl	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-12%)	8mo	$174,000	$174	59
8147 E Turner Camp Rd	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+8%)	14mo	$188,000	$153	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $18,262
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $63,468
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34453

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,603/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $993

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $612	+0% $579	+5% $546	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $511	+0% $579	+5% $647	+10% $715
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $608	base $579	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 1980-10-01
   soldstatus $17,000
4. 1977-02-01
   soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,603 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,603 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,603
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $5,433
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $5,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inverness

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #564
• US rank: #10791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,621
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,621
• Household income: $57,568
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 240.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.32%
• Current HPI: 291.8965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+820.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — RACC
• 2026-03-12 Listed $115,000 RACC
• 1980-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 1977-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,603 · +39.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.