9333 Chiswell Trl · Ruskin, FL 34221

$293,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,886 sqft lot $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Holly at 9333 Chiswell Trail in Cove at Coasterra! Just beyond the foyer, the kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, creating a seamless layout that extends to the outdoor patio, perfect for indoor and outdoor living and enjoying warm Florida days. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned at the back of the home for added privacy and features two walk-in closets, a dual sink vanity, and a walk-in shower. At the front of the home, two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, offering a comfortable and functional setup for everyday living. In this amenity-rich master-planned community, enjoy natural beauty, four pools at Club Coasterra, a lakeside pavilion, fitness spaces, and cabanas overlooking a 65-acre lake. Additional centers offer pools, a dog park, and a 20-acre lake. Explore a 160-acre nature park with trails. Located off Buckeye Road, with easy access to I-75, Sarasota, and Tampa. Additional Highlights Include: white shaker kitchen cabinets, garage door opener, window blinds throughout the whole house, laundry appliance package, and GE side-by-side refrigerator included. Photos are for representative purposes only.

Key facts

• Fitness spaces
• Close to trails
• Water view

Tags

• WATER VIEW
• CLOSE TO TRAILS
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• FOUR POOLS AT CLUB COASTERRA
• LAKESIDE PAVILION
• FITNESS SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; CDD present
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,100; Total monthly HOA fees: $58 (total annual fees $696)
• HOA & community: Cove at Coasterra HOA with required monthly fee ($58); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, pickleball courts, playground, recreation facilities and trails; Association fee includes pool and grounds maintenance; Association approval required; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Community features: dog park, golf carts OK, sidewalks, street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage door opener; Ground-level attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Hurricane shutters
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Fiber optics available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion July 31, 2026); One story; Southwest facing; Under construction
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Taylor Morrison (model: Holly)
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Pond view; Paved road access; Irrigation equipment; Sprinkler recycled

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility/utility area

🏗️ New construction. The $293,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,910.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-637/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $257,728 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,910
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13807 Shellmore Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	3mo	$309,939	$213	94
13816 Shellmore Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	3mo	$291,364	$200	94
9332 Chiswell Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	3mo	$280,250	$193	93
13435 Shellmore Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	3mo	$294,000	$198	86
13420 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	4mo	$329,890	$222	84
13415 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	7mo	$309,000	$208	80
13808 Shellmore Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	2mo	$315,999	$197	78
13705 Shellmore Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	3mo	$300,999	$188	77
9138 Dalera Cv	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+10%)	3mo	$325,000	$202	69
13412 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+10%)	1mo	$345,500	$215	66
13427 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+10%)	6mo	$331,000	$206	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-58,486
• Equity at exit: $43,823

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-84,170
• Equity at exit: $25,412

Cash invested: $82,295 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,541
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,409/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,644

Max offer price $286,227

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $48	+0% $-53	+5% $-155	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-155	+0% $-53	+5% $49	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $22	base $-53	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,478
• Closing costs: $8,817
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	16d	1	0.78mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	1.20mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	18d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $293,999 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,999 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,999 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,999 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,999 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,999 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,999 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $293,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,464
• − Property taxes: −$4,409
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,474
• − Management: −$2,474
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,550
• Taxable loss: −$5,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,346
• After-tax cash flow: $709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a good foundation. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $293,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-09 Listed $293,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid